{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9028ee1-e71b-4751-875c-1ddecd7e80c4", "symbol": "AEDES", "name": "Aedes Spa", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 81.498, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.82, "architecture_energy": 28.268, "architecture_maturity": 34.72, "architecture_confidence": 63.616, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.13, "rotation_up": 46.81, "upward_expansion": 74.97, "deceleration": 55.23, "rotation_down": 21.22, "downward_expansion": 8.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.847067, 0.842727, 0.841752, 0.83629 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.858, "trend_reference": 0.829792, "distance_from_trend": 0.033994, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.999383, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14147, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.30087, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.088832, "excess_performance": -0.082059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033994, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047521, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14147, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022288, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213009, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013448, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088832, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.855001, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40146, "relative_activity": 1.526734, "balance": 0.855001, "dry_up": 1.575744, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059674, "annualized_volatility": 0.4238, "from_high_reference": -0.321739, "from_low_reference": 0.879518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.829792, "fair_value_reference": 0.999383, "structural_low": 0.67, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.022062, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.019691, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.122699, "worst_return": -0.118932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02657, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.060428, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.144118, "worst_return": -0.429245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.132219, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.34924, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193252, "worst_return": -0.469298, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.256635, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.498168, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.202454, "worst_return": -0.283333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.096491, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163366, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152439, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130137, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122699, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050279, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.836267, 0.839873, 0.837976, 0.834797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.822, "volume": 17559, "typical_volume": 62414.0, "trend": 0.841467, "fair_value": 1.010037, "relative_strength": -25.976874, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.728619, "energy": 15.471872, "activity_lines": [ 0.832733, 0.836036, 0.837105, 0.833304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.858, "volume": 14742, "typical_volume": 31762.05, "trend": 0.840183, "fair_value": 1.006723, "relative_strength": -20.839995, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.055735, "energy": 10.492725, "activity_lines": [ 0.840333, 0.839109, 0.83909, 0.834371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.85, "volume": 64345, "typical_volume": 28502.9, "trend": 0.836708, "fair_value": 1.004309, "relative_strength": -20.682955, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.50901, "energy": 13.430034, "activity_lines": [ 0.844733, 0.840836, 0.840362, 0.835004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.832, "volume": 46506, "typical_volume": 25499.55, "trend": 0.833367, "fair_value": 1.001957, "relative_strength": -22.130379, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.496229, "energy": 13.051525, "activity_lines": [ 0.841133, 0.839182, 0.839767, 0.834701 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.858, "volume": 40146, "typical_volume": 26295.35, "trend": 0.829792, "fair_value": 0.999383, "relative_strength": -21.30087, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.819695, "energy": 28.267742, "activity_lines": [ 0.847067, 0.842727, 0.841752, 0.83629 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }