{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e903c11d-be0a-4a8d-beaf-e66e951cb7a2", "symbol": "300443", "name": "Jinlei Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.933, "architecture_energy": 56.826, "architecture_maturity": 52.61, "architecture_confidence": 91.789, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.93, "rotation_up": 25.94, "upward_expansion": 10.27, "deceleration": 57.19, "rotation_down": 48.73, "downward_expansion": 78.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.65, 20.904728, 23.162614, 24.755294 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.1, "trend_reference": 26.531669, "distance_from_trend": -0.204724, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.341131, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.729918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228546, "excess_performance": -0.235946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.204724, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074581, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096016, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.354432, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247299, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202515, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228546, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.671866, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29140685, "relative_activity": 0.709811, "balance": 0.671866, "dry_up": 0.79207, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103381, "annualized_volatility": 0.507264, "from_high_reference": -0.382837, "from_low_reference": 0.146739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.531669, "fair_value_reference": 23.341131, "structural_low": 18.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.017207, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.033867, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.442868, "worst_return": -0.206225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.058807, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066905, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.436591, "worst_return": -0.272676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011832, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047227, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.661254, "worst_return": -0.384673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.861036, "energy": 90.39033, "activity_lines": [ 21.322, 22.787811, 25.440098, 26.490099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.540001, "volume": 25352331, "typical_volume": 49177547.25, "trend": 27.238186, "fair_value": 23.567345, "relative_strength": -31.853209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.172001, "energy": 91.342302, "activity_lines": [ 20.281334, 21.715091, 24.624999, 25.908562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.6, "volume": 41273820, "typical_volume": 49343080.0, "trend": 27.004515, "fair_value": 23.487507, "relative_strength": -24.288212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.757234, "energy": 79.346156, "activity_lines": [ 20.165334, 21.240546, 24.053932, 25.480292 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.43, "volume": 34304200, "typical_volume": 46214504.35, "trend": 26.76296, "fair_value": 23.414291, "relative_strength": -19.809456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.977704, "energy": 66.276707, "activity_lines": [ 20.459334, 21.044909, 23.597003, 25.120646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.1, "volume": 29140685, "typical_volume": 41054125.2, "trend": 26.531669, "fair_value": 23.341131, "relative_strength": -24.729918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.932666, "energy": 56.825719, "activity_lines": [ 20.65, 20.904728, 23.162614, 24.755294 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }