{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e906eb5a-b522-49ad-a245-dfb4a77a83e8", "symbol": "MEL", "name": "Meridian Energy Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 66.256, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.929, "architecture_energy": 17.509, "architecture_maturity": 27.527, "architecture_confidence": 67.884, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.6, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 18.63, "deceleration": 64.25, "rotation_down": 54.39, "downward_expansion": 36.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.663333, 5.704545, 5.743905, 5.70788 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.61, "trend_reference": 5.665964, "distance_from_trend": -0.009877, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.512674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017655, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.199374, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006216, "excess_performance": -0.03449, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01107, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017655, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040981, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041994, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006216, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.933171, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5185578, "relative_activity": 0.887208, "balance": 0.933171, "dry_up": 0.906568, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036748, "annualized_volatility": 0.13378, "from_high_reference": -0.069652, "from_low_reference": 0.077966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.665964, "fair_value_reference": 5.512674, "structural_low": 5.295, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.032197, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.017756, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.058333, "worst_return": -0.010582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.092986, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111344, "worst_return": 0.074627, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.037064, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.049189, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.159983, "worst_return": -0.085856, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"fair_value": 5.493562, "relative_strength": -3.194366, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.496473, "energy": 17.688787, "activity_lines": [ 5.747333, 5.811818, 5.754217, 5.705575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.62, "volume": 5876754, "typical_volume": 6117132.4, "trend": 5.651928, "fair_value": 5.498924, "relative_strength": -3.340014, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.565586, "energy": 20.688569, "activity_lines": [ 5.684, 5.772909, 5.748095, 5.703844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.73, "volume": 4153259, "typical_volume": 6083027.75, "trend": 5.660031, "fair_value": 5.503924, "relative_strength": -1.926472, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.992446, "energy": 20.4599, "activity_lines": [ 5.679333, 5.756545, 5.752333, 5.708881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.7, "volume": 5979354, "typical_volume": 6043890.55, "trend": 5.665486, "fair_value": 5.50827, "relative_strength": -1.839377, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.381374, "energy": 13.666511, "activity_lines": [ 5.684667, 5.736909, 5.753238, 5.71146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.61, "volume": 5185578, "typical_volume": 5844831.1, "trend": 5.665964, "fair_value": 5.512674, "relative_strength": -4.199374, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.929377, "energy": 17.5087, "activity_lines": [ 5.663333, 5.704545, 5.743905, 5.70788 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }