{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e90af5cf-7a24-42fd-8591-6fcac877fde5", "symbol": "ALMU", "name": "Aeluma, Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.46, "architecture_energy": 36.17, "architecture_maturity": 5.317, "architecture_confidence": 65.327, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.88, "rotation_up": 15.87, "upward_expansion": 21.05, "deceleration": 52.76, "rotation_down": 59.39, "downward_expansion": 48.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.383, 17.640182, 19.34531, 18.730441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.3, "trend_reference": 18.003667, "distance_from_trend": 0.01646, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.704044, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.885812, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.608577, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.215139, "excess_performance": 0.027686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01646, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05852, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.885812, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.050999, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086086, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296625, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.215139, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.096504, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2877553, "relative_activity": 0.46786, "balance": 1.096504, "dry_up": 0.446812, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.267578, "annualized_volatility": 1.000722, "from_high_reference": -0.424347, "from_low_reference": 0.787109 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.003667, "fair_value_reference": 9.704044, "structural_low": 10.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.232936, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.217308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.32967, "worst_return": 0.136201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.12893, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.098108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.200717, "worst_return": 0.057143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.056429, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.938331, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.291613, "worst_return": 0.821245, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 7.168459, "positive_rate": 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.098875, "energy": 17.235092, "activity_lines": [ 21.326, 22.210545, 20.610667, 19.39943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.6, "volume": 2149349, "typical_volume": 6308000.5, "trend": 18.313333, "fair_value": 9.393596, "relative_strength": -15.75439, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.219431, "energy": 14.74153, "activity_lines": [ 19.802667, 21.230182, 20.49831, 19.352226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.6, "volume": 3088692, "typical_volume": 6343865.6, "trend": 18.316667, "fair_value": 9.463467, "relative_strength": -26.524057, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.58592, "energy": 24.441189, "activity_lines": [ 17.612, 19.849455, 20.089667, 19.112656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.215, "volume": 2099937, "typical_volume": 6133201.8, "trend": 18.188, "fair_value": 9.531063, "relative_strength": -26.257483, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.422463, "energy": 32.303155, "activity_lines": [ 15.999667, 18.577091, 19.6485, 18.848032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.2, "volume": 2926229, "typical_volume": 6143861.75, "trend": 18.134667, "fair_value": 9.610839, "relative_strength": -15.602307, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.280794, "energy": 39.791065, "activity_lines": [ 15.714, 17.859182, 19.400214, 18.719774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.3, "volume": 2877553, "typical_volume": 6150463.7, "trend": 18.003667, "fair_value": 9.704044, "relative_strength": -8.608577, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.460086, "energy": 36.170072, "activity_lines": [ 16.383, 17.640182, 19.34531, 18.730441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }