{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e90efc2c-2731-4332-87c3-d665b84b13a6", "symbol": "VE6I", "name": "VanEck Sustainable Future of Food UCITS ETF A USD Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.127, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.068, "architecture_energy": 31.219, "architecture_maturity": 68.908, "architecture_confidence": 72.118, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.72, "rotation_up": 38.55, "upward_expansion": 65.63, "deceleration": 85.31, "rotation_down": 25.67, "downward_expansion": 15.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.9352, 19.968746, 19.711672, 19.520471 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.045, "trend_reference": 19.322234, "distance_from_trend": 0.037406, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.441744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.031029, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.289185, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.038063, "excess_performance": -0.026576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037406, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020598, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.031029, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035434, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042892, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00686, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038063, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.003068, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6317, "relative_activity": 1.8709, "balance": 1.003068, "dry_up": 1.041108, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023796, "annualized_volatility": 0.120732, "from_high_reference": -0.052246, "from_low_reference": 0.107459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.322234, "fair_value_reference": 19.441744, "structural_low": 18.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.019812, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.012845, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.056894, "worst_return": -0.015677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060149, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.00295, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.09999, "worst_return": 0.041109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.134562, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002645, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.145209, "worst_return": 0.123915, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069799, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057514, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.055746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001242, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042273, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.492001, "volume": 168, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"volume": 1913, "typical_volume": 3638.6, "trend": 19.196934, "fair_value": 19.392519, "relative_strength": 1.363002, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.278677, "energy": 79.952523, "activity_lines": [ 20.170867, 19.924019, 19.565796, 19.402476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.716, "volume": 3896, "typical_volume": 3445.3, "trend": 19.236, "fair_value": 19.406365, "relative_strength": -1.710961, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.187704, "energy": 54.174647, "activity_lines": [ 20.053667, 19.923837, 19.604624, 19.435964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.780001, "volume": 1935, "typical_volume": 3327.8, "trend": 19.279134, "fair_value": 19.421571, "relative_strength": -3.209247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.088988, "energy": 39.276207, "activity_lines": [ 19.941934, 19.926128, 19.646977, 19.471061 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.045, "volume": 6317, "typical_volume": 3376.45, "trend": 19.322234, "fair_value": 19.441744, "relative_strength": -4.289185, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.068007, "energy": 31.218768, "activity_lines": [ 19.9352, 19.968746, 19.711672, 19.520471 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }