{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9102975-62c0-4a2c-bec7-65ebe1d713c7", "symbol": "CDON", "name": "CDON AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.983, "architecture_energy": 73.835, "architecture_maturity": 23.548, "architecture_confidence": 85.294, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.93, "rotation_up": 11.37, "upward_expansion": 15.55, "deceleration": 38.97, "rotation_down": 75.34, "downward_expansion": 91.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.439999, 58.807272, 62.629523, 64.798709 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 54.0, "trend_reference": 67.026666, "distance_from_trend": -0.194351, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 92.294871, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.414919, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.016987, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.311494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.194351, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018452, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.414919, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.28017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242318, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.227928, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2212, "relative_activity": 0.642902, "balance": 0.227928, "dry_up": 0.41155, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102849, "annualized_volatility": 0.357633, "from_high_reference": -0.352518, "from_low_reference": 0.08 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.026666, "fair_value_reference": 92.294871, "structural_low": 50.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.022222, "positive_rate": 0.28, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": -0.03104, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.423331, "worst_return": -0.393043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.059879, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.06535, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.305, "worst_return": -0.458333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.292918, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.28707, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.081942, "worst_return": -0.325581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"fair_value": 94.266666, "relative_strength": -17.73446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.748122, "energy": 69.120279, "activity_lines": [ 61.079999, 63.112727, 65.87238, 67.126451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.0, "volume": 760, "typical_volume": 6187.65, "trend": 67.48, "fair_value": 93.625641, "relative_strength": -26.523092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.650694, "energy": 79.99492, "activity_lines": [ 58.333333, 61.152727, 64.580952, 66.231828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.599998, "volume": 1317, "typical_volume": 3717.75, "trend": 67.333333, "fair_value": 92.961538, "relative_strength": -21.01116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.758614, "energy": 68.677791, "activity_lines": [ 58.026665, 60.301817, 63.803809, 65.658924 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.0, "volume": 2212, "typical_volume": 3440.65, "trend": 67.026666, "fair_value": 92.294871, "relative_strength": -28.016987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.983403, "energy": 73.835305, "activity_lines": [ 56.439999, 58.807272, 62.629523, 64.798709 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }