{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9181c74-5975-4138-a34b-5a72687d3de6", "symbol": "ALCOF", "name": "Cofidur S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 83.815, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.99, "architecture_energy": 29.567, "architecture_maturity": 4.744, "architecture_confidence": 59.307, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.71, "rotation_up": 54.74, "upward_expansion": 43.83, "deceleration": 26.45, "rotation_down": 18.83, "downward_expansion": 21.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 289.2, 284.319192, 282.330867, 282.570135 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 286.0, "trend_reference": 283.365435, "distance_from_trend": 0.009297, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 303.192672, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056705, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.794543, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.006944, "excess_performance": -0.060256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009297, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000287, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037924, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057945, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001562, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006944, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.206897, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56, "relative_activity": 0.634561, "balance": 2.206897, "dry_up": 1.490085, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047437, "annualized_volatility": 0.280125, "from_high_reference": -0.071875, "from_low_reference": 0.091912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 283.365435, "fair_value_reference": 303.192672, "structural_low": 261.925928, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.027778, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.028116, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027778, "worst_return": 0.027778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.050412, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.048973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.050412, "worst_return": -0.050412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.013889, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033254, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.013889, "worst_return": 0.013889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.048951, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079137, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020548, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 280.357361, "volume": 76, "typical_volume": 44.35, "trend": 286.21399, "fair_value": 277.841899, "relative_strength": -5.888909, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.306777, "energy": 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"activity_lines": [ 276.271611, 278.301691, 280.505826, 281.741621 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 272.0, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 86.5, "trend": 281.765435, "fair_value": 303.588935, "relative_strength": -8.263956, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.379933, "energy": 49.845789, "activity_lines": [ 273.288892, 277.248491, 279.510764, 281.090088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 278.0, "volume": 33, "typical_volume": 83.9, "trend": 281.632101, "fair_value": 303.446284, "relative_strength": -7.319546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.767729, "energy": 51.273604, "activity_lines": [ 273.303705, 277.243103, 279.163321, 280.847157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 284.0, "volume": 22, "typical_volume": 81.3, "trend": 282.165435, "fair_value": 303.353688, "relative_strength": -3.187769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.322651, "energy": 28.073362, "activity_lines": [ 277.2, 278.281485, 279.39683, 280.999924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 278.0, "volume": 31, "typical_volume": 71.45, "trend": 282.498768, "fair_value": 303.22263, "relative_strength": -4.984226, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.160417, "energy": 14.612038, "activity_lines": [ 278.266667, 278.037713, 279.068435, 280.731186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 300.0, "volume": 377, "typical_volume": 85.8, "trend": 283.498768, "fair_value": 303.290571, "relative_strength": 2.248606, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.768778, "energy": 25.599735, "activity_lines": [ 286.133333, 281.746803, 280.920991, 281.860298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 292.0, "volume": 62, "typical_volume": 86.05, "trend": 283.498768, "fair_value": 303.260852, "relative_strength": -1.791225, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.767339, "energy": 25.641484, "activity_lines": [ 289.333333, 283.624243, 281.925929, 282.408765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 286.0, "volume": 56, "typical_volume": 88.25, "trend": 283.365435, "fair_value": 303.192672, "relative_strength": -5.794543, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.990051, "energy": 29.566557, "activity_lines": [ 289.2, 284.319192, 282.330867, 282.570135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }