{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9209ee1-ff9f-4785-97a0-679b2a37caad", "symbol": "6610", "name": "TWi Biotechnology, Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.021, "architecture_energy": 12.91, "architecture_maturity": 39.601, "architecture_confidence": 58.537, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.5, "rotation_up": 29.78, "upward_expansion": 49.63, "deceleration": 74.61, "rotation_down": 22.3, "downward_expansion": 22.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.846667, 27.019312, 27.094697, 26.071958 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.15, "trend_reference": 24.610748, "distance_from_trend": 0.103177, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.658113, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.537537, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.640228, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.251152, "excess_performance": -0.19022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103177, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082346, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.537537, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159079, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226402, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129462, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.251152, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.43655, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 765967, "relative_activity": 0.403859, "balance": 0.43655, "dry_up": 0.841574, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104572, "annualized_volatility": 0.627236, "from_high_reference": -0.335373, "from_low_reference": 1.11284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.610748, "fair_value_reference": 17.658113, "structural_low": 18.700001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.02093, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.078937, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.035727, "worst_return": -0.105747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.001725, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.027378, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.18883, "worst_return": -0.154023, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.127176, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.215323, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.406915, "worst_return": -0.152564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.384771, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.686548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.384771, "worst_return": -0.384771, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054348, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033582, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087591, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.241667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.139319, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.121884, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.295732, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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23.594081, "fair_value": 17.496814, "relative_strength": -20.02171, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.554713, "energy": 24.744034, "activity_lines": [ 27.361152, 27.20599, 26.824065, 25.527157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.65, "volume": 2010867, "typical_volume": 1903584.6, "trend": 23.920748, "fair_value": 17.546687, "relative_strength": -20.038002, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.258459, "energy": 24.754418, "activity_lines": [ 27.156324, 27.0974, 26.938006, 25.724313 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.4, "volume": 736272, "typical_volume": 1899674.9, "trend": 24.240748, "fair_value": 17.602343, "relative_strength": -22.434884, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.102218, "energy": 13.118132, "activity_lines": [ 26.854829, 26.985174, 26.997423, 25.884265 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 27.15, "volume": 765967, "typical_volume": 1896621.15, "trend": 24.610748, "fair_value": 17.658113, "relative_strength": -22.640228, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.021302, "energy": 12.909771, "activity_lines": [ 26.846667, 27.019312, 27.094697, 26.071958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }