{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9215e10-261d-4fad-b8ca-68f7fa7fa18b", "symbol": "TMW", "name": "Thai Mitsuwa Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.181, "architecture_energy": 13.738, "architecture_maturity": 27.277, "architecture_confidence": 80.13, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.57, "rotation_up": 32.13, "upward_expansion": 32.97, "deceleration": 43.69, "rotation_down": 33.43, "downward_expansion": 45.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.766934, 57.607685, 57.72981, 57.69322 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 57.25, "trend_reference": 57.774458, "distance_from_trend": -0.009078, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.486171, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.111949, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.16143, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029661, "excess_performance": -0.221986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009078, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024067, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.111949, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047439, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111614, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036494, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.029661, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.593257, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 713700, "relative_activity": 3.600545, "balance": 1.593257, "dry_up": 3.117874, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03248, "annualized_volatility": 0.168678, "from_high_reference": -0.084, "from_low_reference": 0.156566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.774458, "fair_value_reference": 51.486171, "structural_low": 54.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042958, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.032801, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.128378, "worst_return": -0.106614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070645, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.014386, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.007042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.18593, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.110525, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.331452, "worst_return": -0.052754, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074772, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060302, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037383, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049505, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.085308, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016533, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 36.201206, "volume": 163700, "typical_volume": 97590.0, "trend": 33.030938, "fair_value": 29.375099, "relative_strength": 21.054008, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", 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48.905609, "energy": 40.845075, "activity_lines": [ 58.4, 57.454545, 57.472619, 57.224194 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 59.75, "volume": 83400, "typical_volume": 59510.0, "trend": 56.7, "fair_value": 50.031422, "relative_strength": -7.634415, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.855997, "energy": 68.161436, "activity_lines": [ 59.0, 57.995455, 57.669048, 57.439247 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 59.75, "volume": 32800, "typical_volume": 59745.0, "trend": 56.908333, "fair_value": 50.200281, "relative_strength": -7.987494, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.629028, "energy": 74.689268, "activity_lines": [ 59.383333, 58.472727, 57.852381, 57.636022 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 59.5, "volume": 48500, "typical_volume": 61060.0, "trend": 57.125, "fair_value": 50.378179, "relative_strength": -6.968575, "stage": 2, "regime": 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57.412089, "fair_value": 50.838909, "relative_strength": -15.068235, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.335186, "energy": 32.864244, "activity_lines": [ 56.623844, 57.680381, 57.479989, 57.58317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.212429, "volume": 681900, "typical_volume": 118495.0, "trend": 57.56917, "fair_value": 51.006408, "relative_strength": -11.532974, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.020526, "energy": 22.066262, "activity_lines": [ 56.85381, 57.707866, 57.548493, 57.634805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.212429, "volume": 589000, "typical_volume": 144220.0, "trend": 57.676251, "fair_value": 51.180856, "relative_strength": -11.604825, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.037605, "energy": 17.271159, "activity_lines": [ 57.18628, 57.717851, 57.632652, 57.676306 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.446213, "volume": 487500, "typical_volume": 166045.0, "trend": 57.757791, "fair_value": 51.352633, "relative_strength": -10.090579, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.748381, "energy": 5.110609, "activity_lines": [ 57.682516, 57.761935, 57.740446, 57.725981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.25, "volume": 713700, "typical_volume": 198220.0, "trend": 57.774458, "fair_value": 51.486171, "relative_strength": -11.16143, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.181045, "energy": 13.738037, "activity_lines": [ 57.766934, 57.607685, 57.72981, 57.69322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }