{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e935fdf2-754d-4bd5-90d6-c3f96fdf2b98", "symbol": "002608", "name": "Jiangsu Guoxin Corp. Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.249, "architecture_energy": 31.764, "architecture_maturity": 28.707, "architecture_confidence": 71.443, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.76, "rotation_up": 20.08, "upward_expansion": 8.16, "deceleration": 58.6, "rotation_down": 43.73, "downward_expansion": 67.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.196525, 7.24809, 7.647749, 7.791075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.3, "trend_reference": 7.883208, "distance_from_trend": -0.073981, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.461449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021638, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.657198, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.054404, "excess_performance": -0.061804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073981, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012789, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021638, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090738, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072978, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.832829, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92838103, "relative_activity": 0.661315, "balance": 0.832829, "dry_up": 1.045214, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121436, "annualized_volatility": 0.483013, "from_high_reference": -0.344115, "from_low_reference": 0.121085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.883208, "fair_value_reference": 7.461449, "structural_low": 6.511548, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.049929, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.007339, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.18879, "worst_return": -0.103448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.089688, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.06931, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.182724, "worst_return": 0.019663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.066372, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.103421, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.218101, "worst_return": 0.048544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 7.949208, "fair_value": 7.462235, "relative_strength": -23.769644, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.356161, "energy": 52.788972, "activity_lines": [ 7.101248, 7.757271, 7.954249, 7.977365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.07, "volume": 144975083, "typical_volume": 140423579.95, "trend": 7.924208, "fair_value": 7.460909, "relative_strength": -11.110439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.873684, "energy": 68.7627, "activity_lines": [ 6.978166, 7.583339, 7.857314, 7.920642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.99, "volume": 234594771, "typical_volume": 145278559.0, "trend": 7.897875, "fair_value": 7.459132, "relative_strength": -12.019383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.000056, "energy": 69.368659, "activity_lines": [ 6.929786, 7.409953, 7.758332, 7.86037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.41, "volume": 114517412, "typical_volume": 142030344.2, "trend": 7.886208, "fair_value": 7.460237, "relative_strength": -4.955607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.107804, "energy": 48.540391, "activity_lines": [ 7.101304, 7.333476, 7.705493, 7.828894 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.3, "volume": 92838103, "typical_volume": 140384018.5, "trend": 7.883208, "fair_value": 7.461449, "relative_strength": -10.657198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.249365, "energy": 31.7636, "activity_lines": [ 7.196525, 7.24809, 7.647749, 7.791075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }