{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e93b5d52-ad6f-44a9-82c7-a42dd2d26425", "symbol": "XIT", "name": "iShares S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.345, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.287, "architecture_energy": 39.866, "architecture_maturity": 29.449, "architecture_confidence": 70.904, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.75, "rotation_up": 53.76, "upward_expansion": 77.54, "deceleration": 59.95, "rotation_down": 22.88, "downward_expansion": 6.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.150667, 73.301273, 72.081239, 70.475076 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 79.790001, "trend_reference": 68.995667, "distance_from_trend": 0.156449, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.913032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248415, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.513509, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.242835, "excess_performance": 0.122414, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.156449, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034184, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248415, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135792, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045135, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131511, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.242835, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.442524, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89100, "relative_activity": 1.427999, "balance": 1.442524, "dry_up": 1.149932, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059724, "annualized_volatility": 0.340565, "from_high_reference": -0.113149, "from_low_reference": 0.357435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.995667, "fair_value_reference": 63.913032, "structural_low": 58.779999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.028976, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001388, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.125426, "worst_return": -0.156825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.023794, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.006841, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.204053, "worst_return": -0.243733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.134935, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.059958, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.27882, "worst_return": -0.25003, 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68.010002, "volume": 77400, "typical_volume": 62805.0, "trend": 69.188, "fair_value": 63.503854, "relative_strength": -17.168715, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.11965, "energy": 15.63358, "activity_lines": [ 71.020668, 71.653092, 70.715667, 69.514968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.309998, "volume": 66900, "typical_volume": 62335.0, "trend": 69.030333, "fair_value": 63.687869, "relative_strength": -9.879411, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.245468, "energy": 21.823838, "activity_lines": [ 71.544, 71.930728, 71.114905, 69.780903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 79.790001, "volume": 89100, "typical_volume": 62395.0, "trend": 68.995667, "fair_value": 63.913032, "relative_strength": -4.513509, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.286809, "energy": 39.865505, "activity_lines": [ 74.150667, 73.301273, 72.081239, 70.475076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }