{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9415316-4f4e-45c6-99fe-2f73f7d1ae10", "symbol": "ALDMS", "name": "Diagnostic Medical Systems S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.71, "architecture_energy": 89.514, "architecture_maturity": 25.608, "architecture_confidence": 84.217, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.18, "upward_expansion": 21.98, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 84.55, "downward_expansion": 99.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.097333, 1.15, 1.206333, 1.236925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.09, "trend_reference": 1.275, "distance_from_trend": -0.145098, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.119886, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026687, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.541233, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207273, "excess_performance": -0.260584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022614, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026687, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22838, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207273, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.372482, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23418, "relative_activity": 0.485101, "balance": 0.372482, "dry_up": 1.031798, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049753, "annualized_volatility": 0.286471, "from_high_reference": -0.265993, "from_low_reference": 0.073892 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.275, "fair_value_reference": 1.119886, "structural_low": 1.015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.018735, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.010389, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.247525, "worst_return": -0.211864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015504, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.060721, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.355236, "worst_return": -0.208768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.037062, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.066576, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.569921, "worst_return": -0.274641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031498, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037064, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.489842, "worst_return": -0.073374, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066937, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096107, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.318076, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040146, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074468, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075758, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019084, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028269, "active": false }, { "regime": 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1.197, 1.240929, 1.263075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.075, "volume": 47068, "typical_volume": 50809.8, "trend": 1.281667, "fair_value": 1.121649, "relative_strength": -21.246921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.975845, "energy": 93.861054, "activity_lines": [ 1.117333, 1.170455, 1.222452, 1.24929 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.09, "volume": 23418, "typical_volume": 48274.45, "trend": 1.275, "fair_value": 1.119886, "relative_strength": -21.541233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.709738, "energy": 89.513991, "activity_lines": [ 1.097333, 1.15, 1.206333, 1.236925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }