{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e94e2ee0-0e51-40ba-87d1-5225528a6118", "symbol": "RIC", "name": "Ridley Corporation Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.236, "architecture_energy": 59.676, "architecture_maturity": 24.051, "architecture_confidence": 78.73, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.2, "rotation_up": 69.53, "upward_expansion": 87.54, "deceleration": 43.41, "rotation_down": 13.7, "downward_expansion": 14.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.840667, 2.793455, 2.773851, 2.744318 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.89, "trend_reference": 2.686764, "distance_from_trend": 0.075643, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.452594, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.178344, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.522642, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.237402, "excess_performance": 0.173696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075643, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022403, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.178344, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033928, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005226, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008613, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.237402, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.456162, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1987947, "relative_activity": 0.807237, "balance": 2.456162, "dry_up": 1.304754, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044051, "annualized_volatility": 0.311096, "from_high_reference": -0.092597, "from_low_reference": 0.258554 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.686764, "fair_value_reference": 2.452594, "structural_low": 2.325725, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.011236, "positive_rate": 0.513514, "directional_follow_through": 0.513514, "median_excess_return": 0.005027, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.185345, "worst_return": -0.157706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.050932, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.05414, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.218629, "worst_return": -0.135314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.097546, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.055753, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.24478, "worst_return": -0.058671, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105379, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007407, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03115, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067615, 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"direction": 27.721748, "energy": 19.940554, "activity_lines": [ 2.708667, 2.738364, 2.735684, 2.700308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.77, "volume": 2920817, "typical_volume": 2661326.1, "trend": 2.657555, "fair_value": 2.431662, "relative_strength": 1.402494, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.146983, "energy": 20.584714, "activity_lines": [ 2.720667, 2.743273, 2.739156, 2.708138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.81, "volume": 5356103, "typical_volume": 2706921.65, "trend": 2.66552, "fair_value": 2.438457, "relative_strength": 3.134028, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.349775, "energy": 18.80248, "activity_lines": [ 2.752667, 2.754364, 2.746705, 2.717973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.86, "volume": 2587778, "typical_volume": 2558531.0, "trend": 2.676132, "fair_value": 2.445516, "relative_strength": 2.599497, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.668039, "energy": 45.189276, "activity_lines": [ 2.799333, 2.772727, 2.759187, 2.730521 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.89, "volume": 1987947, "typical_volume": 2462657.0, "trend": 2.686764, "fair_value": 2.452594, "relative_strength": 0.522642, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.236105, "energy": 59.676396, "activity_lines": [ 2.840667, 2.793455, 2.773851, 2.744318 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }