{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e94f697c-58e9-4ffa-b8bf-0b6657d4d067", "symbol": "600243", "name": "Qinghai Huading Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.067, "architecture_energy": 48.665, "architecture_maturity": 8.415, "architecture_confidence": 88.484, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.22, "rotation_up": 15.42, "upward_expansion": 10.73, "deceleration": 39.18, "rotation_down": 62.17, "downward_expansion": 81.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.351333, 3.429091, 3.606095, 3.624989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.63, "trend_reference": 3.743, "distance_from_trend": -0.03019, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.909231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071429, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.770485, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.143868, "excess_performance": -0.100664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03019, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120122, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071429, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192877, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13627, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.143868, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.630364, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39576777, "relative_activity": 1.088246, "balance": 0.630364, "dry_up": 0.877151, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112948, "annualized_volatility": 0.630677, "from_high_reference": -0.39399, "from_low_reference": 0.406977 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.743, "fair_value_reference": 3.909231, "structural_low": 2.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.027868, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.011126, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.367965, "worst_return": -0.296375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.080488, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.094733, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.476038, "worst_return": -0.100295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036345, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.014134, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.593103, "worst_return": -0.157459, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.229947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080986, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022581, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.494286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", 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22287267, "typical_volume": 38810589.7, "trend": 3.913333, "fair_value": 3.929551, "relative_strength": -22.259725, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.679429, "energy": 59.379666, "activity_lines": [ 3.416, 3.597636, 3.692333, 3.727591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.01, "volume": 37541327, "typical_volume": 37486550.75, "trend": 3.848333, "fair_value": 3.920128, "relative_strength": -27.030796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.858053, "energy": 69.965822, "activity_lines": [ 3.253333, 3.464364, 3.631571, 3.669312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.33, "volume": 28193800, "typical_volume": 36588960.95, "trend": 3.798667, "fair_value": 3.913654, "relative_strength": -19.571279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.407774, "energy": 65.81096, "activity_lines": [ 3.246667, 3.415636, 3.604333, 3.635871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.63, "volume": 39576777, "typical_volume": 36367484.8, "trend": 3.743, "fair_value": 3.909231, "relative_strength": -14.770485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.066691, "energy": 48.664973, "activity_lines": [ 3.351333, 3.429091, 3.606095, 3.624989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }