{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e952ed83-1854-49fc-ac7a-b4d5594fa5fc", "symbol": "PMBS", "name": "PIMCO Mortgage-Backed Securities Active Exchange-Traded Fund", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.534, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.01, "architecture_energy": 59.355, "architecture_maturity": 4.672, "architecture_confidence": 86.254, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.54, "rotation_up": 10.91, "upward_expansion": 13.08, "deceleration": 37.69, "rotation_down": 67.8, "downward_expansion": 88.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.545062, 48.730232, 48.870354, 48.963596 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.665, "trend_reference": 49.077135, "distance_from_trend": -0.008398, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.227006, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030449, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.777606, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012397, "excess_performance": -0.19985, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008398, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001924, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030449, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021271, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012397, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.299372, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 355579, "relative_activity": 0.563795, "balance": 1.299372, "dry_up": 0.606272, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010918, "annualized_volatility": 0.048371, "from_high_reference": -0.029013, "from_low_reference": 0.039256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.077135, "fair_value_reference": 47.227006, "structural_low": 47.812186, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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48.887559, 48.967373, 49.04352 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.290408, "volume": 473571, "typical_volume": 623012.35, "trend": 49.090841, "fair_value": 47.212181, "relative_strength": -9.371832, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.050714, "energy": 62.574541, "activity_lines": [ 48.546376, 48.770355, 48.899202, 48.991069 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.665, "volume": 355579, "typical_volume": 630688.15, "trend": 49.077135, "fair_value": 47.227006, "relative_strength": -12.777606, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.009951, "energy": 59.355212, "activity_lines": [ 48.545062, 48.730232, 48.870354, 48.963596 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }