{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e956e441-f818-4234-a569-624140496f32", "symbol": "CSTL", "name": "Castle Biosciences Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.693, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.96, "architecture_energy": 66.97, "architecture_maturity": 18.835, "architecture_confidence": 85.855, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.26, "rotation_up": 72.02, "upward_expansion": 48.38, "deceleration": 21.74, "rotation_down": 14.11, "downward_expansion": 32.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.883, 25.904364, 24.100238, 24.469161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.03, "trend_reference": 26.4615, "distance_from_trend": 0.210438, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.149038, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.326347, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.026298, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.021985, "excess_performance": -0.209438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.210438, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144854, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.326347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.489476, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.369765, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021985, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.076351, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3054668, "relative_activity": 1.584686, "balance": 2.076351, "dry_up": 1.264704, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085978, "annualized_volatility": 0.562517, "from_high_reference": -0.276649, "from_low_reference": 0.807358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.4615, "fair_value_reference": 24.149038, "structural_low": 17.722, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.081784, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.064212, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.080621, "worst_return": -0.18895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.164736, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.166284, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.640068, "worst_return": -0.34128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.184442, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.121162, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.164747, "worst_return": -0.467366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097754, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.219806, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.152111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036078, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.442096, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": 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"energy": 20.430035, "activity_lines": [ 23.848667, 22.818, 22.632143, 24.249387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.685, "volume": 1896701, "typical_volume": 1751728.55, "trend": 27.0565, "fair_value": 23.995, "relative_strength": -17.703088, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.68954, "energy": 16.048037, "activity_lines": [ 24.249667, 23.315636, 22.779238, 24.064753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.0, "volume": 3472106, "typical_volume": 1853365.75, "trend": 26.705167, "fair_value": 24.055897, "relative_strength": -7.734199, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.490509, "energy": 24.361822, "activity_lines": [ 25.518, 24.315, 23.253643, 24.125624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.03, "volume": 3054668, "typical_volume": 1927616.75, "trend": 26.4615, "fair_value": 24.149038, "relative_strength": -0.026298, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.959501, "energy": 66.970187, "activity_lines": [ 27.883, 25.904364, 24.100238, 24.469161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }