{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e95e6d42-e93c-4717-8694-01c0814c3f6e", "symbol": "PHO", "name": "PhosCo Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 64.153, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -37.395, "architecture_energy": 51.559, "architecture_maturity": 13.429, "architecture_confidence": 77.775, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.43, "rotation_up": 14.91, "upward_expansion": 24.1, "deceleration": 50.76, "rotation_down": 72.69, "downward_expansion": 56.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.128667, 0.135727, 0.14181, 0.140538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.14, "distance_from_trend": -0.142857, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.078949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.519968, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.60165, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2, "excess_performance": -0.263706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021898, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.519968, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191452, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076016, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288495, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.41269, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1296805, "relative_activity": 1.278053, "balance": 1.41269, "dry_up": 0.781463, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13141, "annualized_volatility": 0.836653, "from_high_reference": -0.368421, "from_low_reference": 1.242991 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.14, "fair_value_reference": 0.078949, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018564, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.538462, "worst_return": -0.233333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.144231, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.20737, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211538, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.114103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.461538, "worst_return": -0.233333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.564103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.49877, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.211538, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.354839, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.953488, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.275859, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.736111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.571429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.228571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.071, "volume": 180857, "typical_volume": 153243.05, "trend": 0.082733, "fair_value": 0.100288, "relative_strength": -32.194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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0.135, "volume": 197169, "typical_volume": 1114604.85, "trend": 0.143333, "fair_value": 0.0775, "relative_strength": 13.702174, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.266437, "energy": 16.49125, "activity_lines": [ 0.143667, 0.150636, 0.146286, 0.143667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.135, "volume": 528320, "typical_volume": 1051204.9, "trend": 0.1425, "fair_value": 0.077917, "relative_strength": 12.514064, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.913529, "energy": 20.856376, "activity_lines": [ 0.139333, 0.147636, 0.145762, 0.143129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.135, "volume": 274645, "typical_volume": 984471.75, "trend": 0.141833, "fair_value": 0.078289, "relative_strength": 11.549905, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.234994, "energy": 27.006619, "activity_lines": [ 0.136667, 0.144455, 0.145095, 0.142645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.13, "volume": 1071948, "typical_volume": 974600.8, "trend": 0.140833, "fair_value": 0.078635, "relative_strength": 4.043067, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.254346, "energy": 34.162724, "activity_lines": [ 0.133667, 0.140818, 0.143905, 0.141882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 1296805, "typical_volume": 1014672.55, "trend": 0.14, "fair_value": 0.078949, "relative_strength": -7.60165, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.39477, "energy": 51.559124, "activity_lines": [ 0.128667, 0.135727, 0.14181, 0.140538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }