{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9604ba5-89e7-4896-8deb-12ccf5a2cb9f", "symbol": "ATS", "name": "ATS Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -86.935, "architecture_energy": 77.895, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.149, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.22, "rotation_up": 10.04, "upward_expansion": 16.03, "deceleration": 37.42, "rotation_down": 75.64, "downward_expansion": 89.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.290666, 37.025999, 39.404571, 40.21643 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.52, "trend_reference": 40.979, "distance_from_trend": -0.279631, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.238205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.31727, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.618162, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.276293, "excess_performance": -0.396715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.279631, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002422, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.31727, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.395203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.410326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276293, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.256464, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4267300, "relative_activity": 3.710986, "balance": 0.256464, "dry_up": 1.784966, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132661, "annualized_volatility": 0.557911, "from_high_reference": -0.403395, "from_low_reference": 0.054286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.979, "fair_value_reference": 43.238205, "structural_low": 28.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.04499, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.017943, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.148468, "worst_return": -0.128333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.127341, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.08731, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.29678, "worst_return": -0.237221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063079, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.176517, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.217775, "worst_return": -0.062971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -24.961452, "energy": 27.863798, "activity_lines": [ 39.586666, 40.267454, 41.526333, 41.616731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.68, "volume": 1263400, "typical_volume": 1024675.0, "trend": 41.382, "fair_value": 43.687372, "relative_strength": -12.435031, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.807575, "energy": 23.825019, "activity_lines": [ 39.357999, 39.720545, 41.23219, 41.443053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.259998, "volume": 1092600, "typical_volume": 1035055.0, "trend": 41.331333, "fair_value": 43.541346, "relative_strength": -15.186141, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.430148, "energy": 39.844122, "activity_lines": [ 38.629332, 39.093272, 40.825999, 41.177118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.25, "volume": 1586900, "typical_volume": 1031955.0, "trend": 41.329333, "fair_value": 43.42391, "relative_strength": -11.978987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.634328, "energy": 42.579692, "activity_lines": [ 38.363999, 38.770726, 40.532142, 40.978322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.52, "volume": 4267300, "typical_volume": 1149910.0, "trend": 40.979, "fair_value": 43.238205, "relative_strength": -33.618162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.935255, "energy": 77.894522, "activity_lines": [ 35.290666, 37.025999, 39.404571, 40.21643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }