{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e963d8e7-f0e9-4099-93cf-c8b331c0703d", "symbol": "NWH", "name": "NRW Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.54, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.376, "architecture_energy": 25.266, "architecture_maturity": 57.471, "architecture_confidence": 90.208, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.7, "rotation_up": 35.89, "upward_expansion": 59.42, "deceleration": 84.6, "rotation_down": 25.95, "downward_expansion": 18.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.072, 7.072545, 7.021952, 6.759887 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.2, "trend_reference": 6.382565, "distance_from_trend": 0.128073, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.780136, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.904693, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 20.974834, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.462814, "excess_performance": 0.399109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.128073, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11832, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.904693, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185957, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.209748, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325216, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.462814, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.601161, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5115011, "relative_activity": 1.111812, "balance": 0.601161, "dry_up": 1.040611, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069177, "annualized_volatility": 0.435567, "from_high_reference": -0.064935, "from_low_reference": 1.223019 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.382565, "fair_value_reference": 3.780136, "structural_low": 4.990927, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.034234, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.028776, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.097144, "worst_return": -0.118863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002586, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.013244, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.178069, "worst_return": -0.242572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.090458, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.091186, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.375058, "worst_return": -0.218737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.347625, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.332225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.392854, "worst_return": 0.321563, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088737, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038869, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074551, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.327357, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113695, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.190202, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096242, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094637, "active": false }, { 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.233949, "energy": 35.356128, "activity_lines": [ 7.123333, 7.157818, 6.859744, 6.549309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.83, "volume": 4203740, "typical_volume": 4931292.15, "trend": 6.181501, "fair_value": 3.68901, "relative_strength": 25.659065, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.473881, "energy": 32.591614, "activity_lines": [ 7.042, 7.091636, 6.886976, 6.595102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.1, "volume": 4106128, "typical_volume": 4741509.75, "trend": 6.249179, "fair_value": 3.719534, "relative_strength": 29.180156, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.503116, "energy": 28.7554, "activity_lines": [ 7.059333, 7.078182, 6.938056, 6.65436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.0, "volume": 5724906, "typical_volume": 4634765.4, "trend": 6.315163, "fair_value": 3.749194, "relative_strength": 22.878169, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.161037, "energy": 22.995992, "activity_lines": [ 7.024, 7.056, 6.973881, 6.702801 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.2, "volume": 5115011, "typical_volume": 4600609.1, "trend": 6.382565, "fair_value": 3.780136, "relative_strength": 20.974834, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.376035, "energy": 25.265944, "activity_lines": [ 7.072, 7.072545, 7.021952, 6.759887 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }