{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9689a4a-7b6c-46bc-883e-a171b338b4d3", "symbol": "300422", "name": "Guangxi Bossco Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.835, "architecture_energy": 59.163, "architecture_maturity": 13.597, "architecture_confidence": 91.298, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.0, "rotation_up": 14.48, "upward_expansion": 11.56, "deceleration": 42.38, "rotation_down": 64.44, "downward_expansion": 84.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.312, 4.391636, 4.732905, 4.842409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.47, "trend_reference": 4.939, "distance_from_trend": -0.094958, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.991667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104508, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.762294, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09879, "excess_performance": -0.10619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094958, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028393, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104508, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137623, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082693, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09879, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.210687, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53668642, "relative_activity": 0.81214, "balance": 0.210687, "dry_up": 0.867671, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091551, "annualized_volatility": 0.440706, "from_high_reference": -0.273171, "from_low_reference": 0.158031 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.939, "fair_value_reference": 4.991667, "structural_low": 3.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.034983, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.032836, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.29011, "worst_return": -0.235602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.039065, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.051987, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.184149, "worst_return": -0.249175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.045386, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.117915, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.174825, "worst_return": -0.179207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101512, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041502, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069721, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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"Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.777175, "energy": 74.807824, "activity_lines": [ 4.391333, 4.651818, 4.926476, 4.972989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.11, "volume": 63411104, "typical_volume": 64975187.25, "trend": 4.955, "fair_value": 5.02109, "relative_strength": -18.893448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.024566, "energy": 77.53447, "activity_lines": [ 4.274667, 4.503636, 4.840381, 4.917118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.27, "volume": 49738041, "typical_volume": 65376123.95, "trend": 4.943, "fair_value": 5.005833, "relative_strength": -13.873012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.525083, "energy": 70.467711, "activity_lines": [ 4.256667, 4.416545, 4.774857, 4.872925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.47, "volume": 53668642, "typical_volume": 66083012.05, "trend": 4.939, "fair_value": 4.991667, "relative_strength": -13.762294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.835243, "energy": 59.163299, "activity_lines": [ 4.312, 4.391636, 4.732905, 4.842409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }