{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e98156e9-bec7-449a-a2bf-a2727e431a66", "symbol": "TIA", "name": "Tian An Australia Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.623, "architecture_energy": 67.526, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.114, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.2, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 50.77, "downward_expansion": 80.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.17, 0.170818, 0.179405, 0.193672 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.17, "trend_reference": 0.222917, "distance_from_trend": -0.237383, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.217933, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.10819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.492537, "excess_performance": -0.556243, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.237383, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160126, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219943, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.492537, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.445434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.445434, "dry_up": 0.034387, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020362, "annualized_volatility": 0.762982, "from_high_reference": -0.514286, "from_low_reference": 0.096774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.222917, "fair_value_reference": 0.217933, "structural_low": 0.165, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.325, "median_excess_return": 0.000293, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.012821, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038958, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.434783, "worst_return": -0.254545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.078947, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.150215, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.434783, "worst_return": -0.218182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.225, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.634146, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.128205, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.275, "volume": 4622, "typical_volume": 20250.3, "trend": 0.295833, "fair_value": 0.275288, "relative_strength": 1.792263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.003714, 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0.170667, 0.178091, 0.189024, 0.211005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.17, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9543.45, "trend": 0.239917, "fair_value": 0.219984, "relative_strength": -27.278896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.664337, "energy": 89.027685, "activity_lines": [ 0.169667, 0.175545, 0.18619, 0.206172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.17, "volume": 250, "typical_volume": 1817.55, "trend": 0.234917, "fair_value": 0.219375, "relative_strength": -27.15543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.320439, "energy": 88.535107, "activity_lines": [ 0.17, 0.173455, 0.183786, 0.201661 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.17, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1817.55, "trend": 0.228917, "fair_value": 0.218702, "relative_strength": -28.868551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.973218, "energy": 88.03431, "activity_lines": [ 0.17, 0.171909, 0.181524, 0.197473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.17, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1817.55, "trend": 0.222917, "fair_value": 0.217933, "relative_strength": -31.10819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.622559, "energy": 67.52624, "activity_lines": [ 0.17, 0.170818, 0.179405, 0.193672 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }