{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e983b9ec-1b90-4a2a-9814-200302513bfa", "symbol": "T1LK34", "name": "Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.167, "architecture_energy": 62.931, "architecture_maturity": 83.807, "architecture_confidence": 90.491, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.73, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 43.65, "rotation_down": 52.1, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.040001, 36.839238, 37.901525, 40.463094 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.080002, "trend_reference": 44.726061, "distance_from_trend": -0.170953, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.121091, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.245131, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.132758, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.332974, "excess_performance": -0.275925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170953, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128301, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.245131, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002401, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085229, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.332974, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.573668, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.068847, "balance": 0.573668, "dry_up": 0.309811, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017944, "annualized_volatility": 0.282377, "from_high_reference": -0.376283, "from_low_reference": 0.035176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.726061, "fair_value_reference": 49.121091, "structural_low": 35.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.00779, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012746, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.191347, "worst_return": -0.114655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.021647, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.006374, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.167639, "worst_return": -0.193411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015541, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.069046, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061616, "worst_return": -0.101755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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50.284445, "relative_strength": -30.288695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.419202, "energy": 74.113622, "activity_lines": [ 38.30625, 39.813161, 43.728316, 47.087739 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 37.928589, "volume": 152, "typical_volume": 14.95, "trend": 50.338728, "fair_value": 50.130918, "relative_strength": -29.762309, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.010705, "energy": 91.178833, "activity_lines": [ 38.138678, 39.140664, 42.806928, 46.256308 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 37.52, "volume": 296, "typical_volume": 29.75, "trend": 49.847728, "fair_value": 50.004206, "relative_strength": -29.034745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.335963, "energy": 92.130144, "activity_lines": [ 37.874927, 38.579722, 41.947919, 45.429293 ] }, { 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"direction": -80.031487, "energy": 72.857318, "activity_lines": [ 36.319906, 37.039732, 39.533226, 42.896228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.84, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27.85, "trend": 46.802061, "fair_value": 49.457482, "relative_strength": -32.081261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.944998, "energy": 87.328545, "activity_lines": [ 36.029333, 36.724912, 38.896789, 42.138417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.119999, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": 29.1, "trend": 46.094061, "fair_value": 49.345856, "relative_strength": -27.216708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.547571, "energy": 68.745621, "activity_lines": [ 36.638, 36.873526, 38.566256, 41.578284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.080002, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 29.1, "trend": 45.351394, "fair_value": 49.227564, "relative_strength": -30.075769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.600484, "energy": 63.657789, "activity_lines": [ 36.86, 36.840482, 38.210629, 40.996732 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.080002, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 29.05, "trend": 44.726061, "fair_value": 49.121091, "relative_strength": -27.132758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.167305, "energy": 62.931059, "activity_lines": [ 37.040001, 36.839238, 37.901525, 40.463094 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }