{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9866413-44b9-4d71-9cb8-b42b70136cd8", "symbol": "RED", "name": "Redeia Corporaci\u00f3n, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 84.468, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.289, "architecture_energy": 66.452, "architecture_maturity": 12.856, "architecture_confidence": 63.025, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.25, "rotation_up": 71.95, "upward_expansion": 86.93, "deceleration": 47.79, "rotation_down": 9.53, "downward_expansion": 13.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.490667, 15.328306, 14.976653, 14.939171 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.47, "trend_reference": 14.936824, "distance_from_trend": 0.035695, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.245196, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.014746, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.63878, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017763, "excess_performance": -0.106668, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035695, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.014746, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088628, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078087, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017763, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.459677, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3101355, "relative_activity": 0.601197, "balance": 1.459677, "dry_up": 0.911355, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026598, "annualized_volatility": 0.195937, "from_high_reference": -0.113388, "from_low_reference": 0.122477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.936824, "fair_value_reference": 15.245196, "structural_low": 13.782024, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008415, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.011956, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.09749, "worst_return": -0.035521, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.016289, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033465, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043199, "worst_return": -0.053631, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.006869, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.07533, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13505, "worst_return": -0.059303, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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29.532879, "activity_lines": [ 14.883121, 14.611885, 14.626623, 14.744198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.39, "volume": 5116704, "typical_volume": 6280650.85, "trend": 14.87163, "fair_value": 15.192623, "relative_strength": -13.474633, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.237666, "energy": 51.82739, "activity_lines": [ 15.102656, 14.785436, 14.685505, 14.779072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.59, "volume": 5329708, "typical_volume": 5888898.7, "trend": 14.896201, "fair_value": 15.20487, "relative_strength": -10.74677, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.580407, "energy": 65.107253, "activity_lines": [ 15.314978, 14.9759, 14.76634, 14.825419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.72, "volume": 4600399, "typical_volume": 5621942.0, "trend": 14.921157, "fair_value": 15.218887, "relative_strength": -10.949982, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.166504, "energy": 70.465123, "activity_lines": [ 15.502, 15.161322, 14.860222, 14.878567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.32, "volume": 5773936, "typical_volume": 5524094.3, "trend": 14.92949, "fair_value": 15.231816, "relative_strength": -13.374062, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.475129, "energy": 66.301699, "activity_lines": [ 15.488, 15.239829, 14.911962, 14.904299 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.47, "volume": 3101355, "typical_volume": 5158637.35, "trend": 14.936824, "fair_value": 15.245196, "relative_strength": -13.63878, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.289409, "energy": 66.452214, "activity_lines": [ 15.490667, 15.328306, 14.976653, 14.939171 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }