{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9890d2b-4574-4657-8c9d-0cc04e3f8ae2", "symbol": "600226", "name": "Zhejiang Hengtong Holding Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.277, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.002, "architecture_energy": 32.92, "architecture_maturity": 60.129, "architecture_confidence": 62.58, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.17, "rotation_up": 12.01, "upward_expansion": 22.83, "deceleration": 79.0, "rotation_down": 65.49, "downward_expansion": 35.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.84, 6.939818, 6.873238, 6.564043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.17, "trend_reference": 6.258333, "distance_from_trend": -0.014115, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.481346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.772303, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.759262, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": 0.043204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014115, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.772303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.157593, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.050164, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 786872921, "relative_activity": 1.563782, "balance": 1.050164, "dry_up": 1.488588, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.201346, "annualized_volatility": 0.841682, "from_high_reference": -0.444644, "from_low_reference": 1.235507 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.258333, "fair_value_reference": 3.481346, "structural_low": 4.44, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.00813, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.007249, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.228319, "worst_return": -0.036885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071146, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.096544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.588008, "worst_return": -0.062992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.092566, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.074003, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.559551, "worst_return": -0.252874, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.045113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022388, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01845, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.143631, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080899, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.727706, "energy": 46.531412, "activity_lines": [ 8.140667, 8.066727, 7.133381, 6.700387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.4, "volume": 771730495, "typical_volume": 473616937.5, "trend": 6.236333, "fair_value": 3.443013, "relative_strength": 6.650805, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.129748, "energy": 20.27177, "activity_lines": [ 7.016, 7.659273, 7.03219, 6.647699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.0, "volume": 691293086, "typical_volume": 487706947.6, "trend": 6.230333, "fair_value": 3.458526, "relative_strength": -2.469095, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.321553, "energy": 37.775584, "activity_lines": [ 6.048667, 7.183455, 6.894571, 6.567935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.17, "volume": 786872921, "typical_volume": 503185783.95, "trend": 6.258333, "fair_value": 3.481346, "relative_strength": 15.759262, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.002435, "energy": 32.920352, "activity_lines": [ 5.84, 6.939818, 6.873238, 6.564043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }