{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e98c550a-ef6b-4de0-9635-b3bae31f39b6", "symbol": "ECL", "name": "Excelsior Capital Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.738, "architecture_energy": 34.971, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.472, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.73, "rotation_up": 33.91, "upward_expansion": 36.19, "deceleration": 53.0, "rotation_down": 21.64, "downward_expansion": 51.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.936667, 0.921909, 0.916276, 0.956991 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.94, "trend_reference": 1.062019, "distance_from_trend": -0.114894, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.078374, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.022491, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.370612, "excess_performance": -0.434318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114894, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146005, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.128318, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014959, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230225, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010948, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.370612, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.524559, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9615, "relative_activity": 0.071556, "balance": 0.524559, "dry_up": 0.475931, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022095, "annualized_volatility": 0.63816, "from_high_reference": -0.429659, "from_low_reference": 0.086705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.062019, "fair_value_reference": 1.078374, "structural_low": 0.865, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.010471, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.015037, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.250813, "worst_return": -0.084656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.069627, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.123869, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.207317, "worst_return": -0.068063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.18135, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.28793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.18135, "worst_return": 0.18135, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.079186, "energy": 52.163835, "activity_lines": [ 0.918333, 0.907818, 0.912428, 0.9762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.945, "volume": 19200, "typical_volume": 136292.6, "trend": 1.081641, "fair_value": 1.077844, "relative_strength": -20.448901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.111757, "energy": 34.250185, "activity_lines": [ 0.930333, 0.915727, 0.914589, 0.966129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.94, "volume": 9615, "typical_volume": 134369.85, "trend": 1.062019, "fair_value": 1.078374, "relative_strength": -23.022491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.738211, "energy": 34.970702, "activity_lines": [ 0.936667, 0.921909, 0.916276, 0.956991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }