{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e991d256-e6b8-4a85-952e-aeae09903938", "symbol": "IGLD", "name": "FT VEST GOLD STRATEGY TARGET INCOME ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.195, "architecture_energy": 53.361, "architecture_maturity": 52.625, "architecture_confidence": 93.648, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.01, "rotation_up": 27.48, "upward_expansion": 9.25, "deceleration": 59.92, "rotation_down": 51.05, "downward_expansion": 82.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.801821, 20.821777, 21.638854, 22.422069 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.63, "trend_reference": 23.407499, "distance_from_trend": -0.075937, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.467124, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.238326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.444176, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.148002, "excess_performance": -0.273627, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075937, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.238326, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194323, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144442, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12582, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.148002, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.500724, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1881429, "relative_activity": 1.223022, "balance": 0.500724, "dry_up": 0.952916, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044179, "annualized_volatility": 0.23285, "from_high_reference": -0.218911, "from_low_reference": 0.166372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.407499, "fair_value_reference": 17.467124, "structural_low": 19.935149, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00136, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002878, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.05202, "worst_return": -0.022751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.051269, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.018759, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079883, "worst_return": 0.022655, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.10711, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020555, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167732, "worst_return": 0.046488, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.180053, "volume": 1676714, "typical_volume": 1554866.0, "trend": 23.660209, "fair_value": 17.30497, "relative_strength": -17.300167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.0154, "energy": 88.302335, "activity_lines": [ 20.577402, 21.146895, 22.190861, 22.95259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.395568, "volume": 1191835, "typical_volume": 1554819.75, "trend": 23.551681, "fair_value": 17.355797, "relative_strength": -15.827631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.42297, "energy": 80.885961, "activity_lines": [ 20.445509, 20.912729, 21.938703, 22.741968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.434752, "volume": 1113675, "typical_volume": 1563630.2, "trend": 23.471503, "fair_value": 17.407106, "relative_strength": -16.432028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.532179, "energy": 71.073784, "activity_lines": [ 20.409936, 20.73587, 21.719189, 22.540876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.63, "volume": 1881429, "typical_volume": 1538344.8, "trend": 23.407499, "fair_value": 17.467124, "relative_strength": -14.444176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.195339, "energy": 53.360782, "activity_lines": [ 20.801821, 20.821777, 21.638854, 22.422069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }