{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9973cfa-d18f-4afd-aa9d-84ce948b259d", "symbol": "688377", "name": "Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.483, "architecture_energy": 78.143, "architecture_maturity": 38.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.012, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.61, "rotation_up": 11.77, "upward_expansion": 18.48, "deceleration": 39.34, "rotation_down": 72.29, "downward_expansion": 91.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.737334, 21.500364, 25.028347, 27.400767 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.5, "trend_reference": 30.199004, "distance_from_trend": -0.32117, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.736063, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011384, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.226913, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.418632, "excess_performance": -0.375428, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.32117, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082795, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011384, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.53624, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.312269, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.3175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.418632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.42184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14509946, "relative_activity": 1.270605, "balance": 0.42184, "dry_up": 1.40394, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17749, "annualized_volatility": 0.624077, "from_high_reference": -0.537427, "from_low_reference": 0.165435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.199004, "fair_value_reference": 20.736063, "structural_low": 17.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.047216, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.04949, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.349802, "worst_return": -0.183726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.156074, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.126331, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.262002, "worst_return": -0.294353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.033024, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.087806, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.010171, "worst_return": -0.362435, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 13151866, "typical_volume": 13245983.8, "trend": 31.225187, "fair_value": 20.782721, "relative_strength": -31.566406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.117394, "energy": 87.565102, "activity_lines": [ 22.548667, 24.770918, 27.775965, 29.6185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.09, "volume": 18321924, "typical_volume": 11941863.25, "trend": 30.900441, "fair_value": 20.77549, "relative_strength": -34.283901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.449356, "energy": 85.530223, "activity_lines": [ 21.078, 23.327636, 26.731646, 28.835584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.690001, "volume": 18146638, "typical_volume": 11690734.0, "trend": 30.529222, "fair_value": 20.744389, "relative_strength": -35.721062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.839683, "energy": 88.074814, "activity_lines": [ 19.941334, 22.114546, 25.751647, 28.047814 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.5, "volume": 14509946, "typical_volume": 11419714.6, "trend": 30.199004, "fair_value": 20.736063, "relative_strength": -31.226913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.48294, "energy": 78.143336, "activity_lines": [ 19.737334, 21.500364, 25.028347, 27.400767 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }