{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e99a06c5-1c54-4603-9612-c6cbe68fe271", "symbol": "THREL", "name": "Thaire Life Assurance Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 79.538, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.539, "architecture_energy": 10.264, "architecture_maturity": 26.44, "architecture_confidence": 76.188, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.35, "rotation_up": 24.24, "upward_expansion": 18.47, "deceleration": 37.96, "rotation_down": 34.89, "downward_expansion": 59.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.01, 1.006182, 1.00781, 1.014323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.03, "trend_reference": 1.022667, "distance_from_trend": 0.007171, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.629786, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.368015, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.394828, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.009804, "excess_performance": -0.182521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007171, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011598, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.368015, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092648, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173948, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066871, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009804, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.145617, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1291700, "relative_activity": 1.758731, "balance": 1.145617, "dry_up": 1.987916, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038088, "annualized_volatility": 0.255934, "from_high_reference": -0.225564, "from_low_reference": 0.107527 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.022667, "fair_value_reference": 1.629786, "structural_low": 0.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.475, "median_excess_return": -0.017899, "regime_survival": 0.775, "best_return": 0.260504, "worst_return": -0.285186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.081474, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.245509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.13493, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.116329, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.779411, "worst_return": -0.350877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"volume": 1573800, "typical_volume": 679710.0, "trend": 1.024, "fair_value": 1.684437, "relative_strength": -22.96029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.471374, "energy": 25.989651, "activity_lines": [ 1.003333, 1.004545, 1.009571, 1.018409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.0, "volume": 1413900, "typical_volume": 692525.0, "trend": 1.023667, "fair_value": 1.670452, "relative_strength": -23.056435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.894947, "energy": 19.433442, "activity_lines": [ 1.003333, 1.003091, 1.007905, 1.01686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.0, "volume": 2576800, "typical_volume": 751585.0, "trend": 1.023333, "fair_value": 1.657321, "relative_strength": -22.534425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.078963, "energy": 17.697648, "activity_lines": [ 1.002667, 1.001636, 1.006857, 1.015333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.0, "volume": 557700, "typical_volume": 710290.0, "trend": 1.022333, "fair_value": 1.643946, "relative_strength": -20.960208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.812633, "energy": 20.551769, "activity_lines": [ 1.001333, 1.000727, 1.005857, 1.013828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.03, "volume": 1291700, "typical_volume": 734450.0, "trend": 1.022667, "fair_value": 1.629786, "relative_strength": -17.394828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.539295, "energy": 10.264057, "activity_lines": [ 1.01, 1.006182, 1.00781, 1.014323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }