{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9ac69db-5205-410d-948c-c5fc2ac5d0bd", "symbol": "ARENTERP", "name": "Rajdarshan Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.874, "architecture_energy": 10.657, "architecture_maturity": 19.651, "architecture_confidence": 61.122, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.43, "rotation_up": 45.06, "upward_expansion": 35.91, "deceleration": 44.54, "rotation_down": 22.39, "downward_expansion": 17.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.955334, 38.855273, 38.73681, 38.969376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 37.91, "trend_reference": 39.504666, "distance_from_trend": -0.040367, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.063269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.649247, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.013017, "excess_performance": 0.030692, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040367, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158738, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031848, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106492, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007312, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013017, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.546364, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14588, "relative_activity": 0.401779, "balance": 3.546364, "dry_up": 4.196883, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14086, "annualized_volatility": 0.447243, "from_high_reference": -0.376378, "from_low_reference": 0.263246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.504666, "fair_value_reference": 45.063269, "structural_low": 30.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.00229, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.006718, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.336296, "worst_return": -0.083248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.023669, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.049334, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.216326, "worst_return": -0.271279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059044, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003648, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.704922, "worst_return": -0.206742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005486, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.091344, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.177778, "worst_return": -0.147368, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.33953, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056013, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138536, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156464, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004948, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06132, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004754, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2042, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.200174, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.119433, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085625, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 34.0, "volume": 4388, "typical_volume": 18350.35, "trend": 33.915, "fair_value": 28.585897, "relative_strength": -8.402431, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", 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"relative_strength": -13.387733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.519723, "energy": 44.3147, "activity_lines": [ 36.567334, 37.247273, 38.198381, 38.892043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.240002, "volume": 6872, "typical_volume": 6736.05, "trend": 39.912333, "fair_value": 44.894615, "relative_strength": -12.191629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.98039, "energy": 37.851201, "activity_lines": [ 36.675334, 37.150728, 38.042667, 38.700817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.240002, "volume": 482976, "typical_volume": 30554.7, "trend": 39.824667, "fair_value": 44.973398, "relative_strength": 6.909352, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.317391, "energy": 6.071053, "activity_lines": [ 39.196001, 38.360728, 38.571572, 38.980022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.459999, "volume": 105095, "typical_volume": 35687.1, "trend": 39.710333, "fair_value": 45.027949, "relative_strength": -2.054618, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.675378, "energy": 14.621398, "activity_lines": [ 40.310001, 38.959273, 38.822429, 39.085527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.91, "volume": 14588, "typical_volume": 36308.55, "trend": 39.504666, "fair_value": 45.063269, "relative_strength": -10.649247, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.873718, "energy": 10.657379, "activity_lines": [ 39.955334, 38.855273, 38.73681, 38.969376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }