{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9b07225-499b-4f69-a97d-8019e9999bc7", "symbol": "ASG", "name": "Liberty All-Star Growth Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.263, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.726, "architecture_energy": 20.729, "architecture_maturity": 23.671, "architecture_confidence": 74.097, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.07, "rotation_up": 34.55, "upward_expansion": 57.73, "deceleration": 83.79, "rotation_down": 28.57, "downward_expansion": 19.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.207834, 5.217157, 5.210732, 5.148483 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.35, "trend_reference": 5.099277, "distance_from_trend": 0.049168, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.726119, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.852203, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.055271, "excess_performance": -0.070354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049168, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008769, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132007, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002742, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005049, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055271, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.662916, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1415033, "relative_activity": 1.071982, "balance": 0.662916, "dry_up": 1.132503, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040425, "annualized_volatility": 0.167949, "from_high_reference": -0.011091, "from_low_reference": 0.201386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.099277, "fair_value_reference": 4.726119, "structural_low": 4.453191, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.012962, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.003042, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.046154, "worst_return": -0.153963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020071, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.006252, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.099493, "worst_return": -0.233232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055771, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.040219, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.070782, "worst_return": -0.130191, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 5.15, "volume": 1143375, "typical_volume": 1305064.0, "trend": 5.095973, "fair_value": 4.706677, "relative_strength": -7.611051, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.001618, "energy": 28.30103, "activity_lines": [ 5.239872, 5.23858, 5.184865, 5.130644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.07, "volume": 2139805, "typical_volume": 1328648.65, "trend": 5.092335, "fair_value": 4.711754, "relative_strength": -8.19826, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.704782, "energy": 14.074788, "activity_lines": [ 5.181036, 5.208348, 5.183654, 5.128968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.14, "volume": 1281475, "typical_volume": 1316459.45, "trend": 5.095178, "fair_value": 4.718087, "relative_strength": -7.640021, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.948371, "energy": 15.901415, "activity_lines": [ 5.157443, 5.192661, 5.188222, 5.132043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.35, "volume": 1415033, "typical_volume": 1320015.65, "trend": 5.099277, "fair_value": 4.726119, "relative_strength": -6.852203, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.726494, "energy": 20.728952, "activity_lines": [ 5.207834, 5.217157, 5.210732, 5.148483 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }