{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "e9b209ed-a316-494c-8f43-45c902f5b6e4",
    "symbol": "BITI",
    "name": "BetaPro Inverse Bitcoin ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 36.908,
    "architecture_energy": 21.936,
    "architecture_maturity": 50.917,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.647,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 45.43,
        "rotation_up": 22.91,
        "upward_expansion": 58.31,
        "deceleration": 93.52,
        "rotation_down": 26.75,
        "downward_expansion": 15.31
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        25.450667,
        25.878545,
        24.886476,
        24.429269
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 24.940001,
    "trend_reference": 23.733333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.050843,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 32.873814,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.241341,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 4.560244,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.032712,
    "excess_performance": -0.087709,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050843,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.09498,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.241341,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.221279,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045602,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.104463,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032712,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.285197,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 73500,
      "relative_activity": 0.430845,
      "balance": 2.285197,
      "dry_up": 0.759254,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.06585,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.39582,
      "from_high_reference": -0.117168,
      "from_low_reference": 0.679461
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 23.733333,
      "fair_value_reference": 32.873814,
      "structural_low": 19.85,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.021708,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006775,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.299095,
        "worst_return": -0.285822,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.127728,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.088209,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.199622,
        "worst_return": -0.415535,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.139564,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.235818,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.352847,
        "worst_return": -0.631976,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.640272,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.897597,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.640272,
        "worst_return": -0.640272,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-11-03",
        "end": "2024-07-05",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.450246,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-07-12",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.197802,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.259783,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.181513,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.040239,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.160756,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.091943,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.285258,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.07415,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-05-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.037754,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-05-15",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.077665,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-06-05",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.051282,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.033623,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.037437,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "typical_volume": 40496.4,
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      },
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        "close": 21.030001,
        "volume": 268600,
        "typical_volume": 350180.0,
        "trend": 20.911667,
        "fair_value": 38.836955,
        "relative_strength": -3.298266,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 15.42111,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 348030.0,
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        "fair_value": 38.426058,
        "relative_strength": -4.435191,
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        "energy": 19.727576,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 20.389999,
        "volume": 176700,
        "typical_volume": 335400.0,
        "trend": 21.234333,
        "fair_value": 37.943365,
        "relative_strength": -5.886095,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.763506,
        "energy": 36.140952,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 335450.0,
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        "fair_value": 37.475417,
        "relative_strength": -3.358046,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -22.271589,
        "energy": 45.322876,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 332405.0,
        "trend": 21.497,
        "fair_value": 37.007083,
        "relative_strength": -0.518482,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.697513,
        "energy": 39.603124,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 333685.0,
        "trend": 21.674667,
        "fair_value": 36.562468,
        "relative_strength": 1.571417,
        "stage": 1,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 27.299999,
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        "typical_volume": 333470.0,
        "trend": 21.987667,
        "fair_value": 36.139327,
        "relative_strength": 24.964499,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.690497,
        "energy": 40.185491,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 27300,
        "typical_volume": 326515.0,
        "trend": 22.196333,
        "fair_value": 35.713045,
        "relative_strength": 16.501224,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 54.463258,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 304820.0,
        "trend": 22.346333,
        "fair_value": 35.385545,
        "relative_strength": 18.689178,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 73.236522,
        "energy": 79.226344,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 27.799999,
        "volume": 37800,
        "typical_volume": 252775.0,
        "trend": 22.600333,
        "fair_value": 35.054006,
        "relative_strength": 24.078703,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.637893,
        "energy": 88.627499,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.634666,
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          23.831619,
          23.409097
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 26.68,
        "volume": 33800,
        "typical_volume": 229915.0,
        "trend": 22.818333,
        "fair_value": 34.707211,
        "relative_strength": 17.75389,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.314769,
        "energy": 81.885705,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 25.84,
        "volume": 144600,
        "typical_volume": 228085.0,
        "trend": 23.018667,
        "fair_value": 34.358173,
        "relative_strength": 13.348619,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.340592,
        "energy": 75.438686,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.544,
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          23.867247
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 25.42,
        "volume": 190300,
        "typical_volume": 216730.0,
        "trend": 23.188667,
        "fair_value": 34.001058,
        "relative_strength": 11.171785,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.902913,
        "energy": 50.610711,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.171333,
          25.882,
          24.453952,
          24.022172
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 25.58,
        "volume": 135200,
        "typical_volume": 191535.0,
        "trend": 23.364333,
        "fair_value": 33.63375,
        "relative_strength": 11.060196,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.915733,
        "energy": 35.200287,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.884,
          25.983818,
          24.616666,
          24.176451
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 25.91,
        "volume": 119100,
        "typical_volume": 182525.0,
        "trend": 23.567,
        "fair_value": 33.254199,
        "relative_strength": 12.544395,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.650904,
        "energy": 28.587449,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.766,
          26.057454,
          24.803762,
          24.340688
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 24.940001,
        "volume": 73500,
        "typical_volume": 170595.0,
        "trend": 23.733333,
        "fair_value": 32.873814,
        "relative_strength": 4.560244,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.908432,
        "energy": 21.935795,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.450667,
          25.878545,
          24.886476,
          24.429269
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}