{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9b20bfb-e496-4196-a9db-80bb0e5a78e9", "symbol": "GOOG", "name": "Alphabet Inc Class C", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.042, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.837, "architecture_energy": 11.651, "architecture_maturity": 41.083, "architecture_confidence": 87.512, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.81, "rotation_up": 23.09, "upward_expansion": 42.51, "deceleration": 81.49, "rotation_down": 31.52, "downward_expansion": 31.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 346.566, 348.257952, 354.993825, 347.4537 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 353.47, "trend_reference": 338.431763, "distance_from_trend": 0.044435, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 211.236956, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.673334, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.610705, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095413, "excess_performance": -0.09204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044435, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04533, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.673334, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.39693, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006107, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254201, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095413, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.241638, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107615095, "relative_activity": 1.046085, "balance": 0.241638, "dry_up": 1.040324, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077491, "annualized_volatility": 0.396082, "from_high_reference": -0.125559, "from_low_reference": 0.795209 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 338.431763, "fair_value_reference": 211.236956, "structural_low": 271.3697, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.050571, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.011953, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.250438, "worst_return": -0.120355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.095705, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.01227, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.259849, "worst_return": -0.021788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.147494, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.062773, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.242813, "worst_return": -0.043165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077534, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054928, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033406, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130164, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.525701, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120355, 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"activity_lines": [ 350.406667, 356.116919, 355.637874, 346.206984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 319.09, "volume": 122279344, "typical_volume": 100625774.05, "trend": 336.215296, "fair_value": 208.328725, "relative_strength": -2.824806, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.242732, "energy": 16.325191, "activity_lines": [ 339.471333, 348.10405, 353.294502, 345.111884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 356.65, "volume": 110473533, "typical_volume": 102156272.6, "trend": 337.606565, "fair_value": 209.798211, "relative_strength": 7.267119, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.656576, "energy": 13.546763, "activity_lines": [ 344.280667, 348.265555, 354.427434, 346.430252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 353.47, "volume": 107615095, "typical_volume": 102874163.2, "trend": 338.431763, "fair_value": 211.236956, "relative_strength": 0.610705, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.837059, "energy": 11.651171, "activity_lines": [ 346.566, 348.257952, 354.993825, 347.4537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }