{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9b8891e-87d3-401b-a444-026e1b9c56dd", "symbol": "ALRGR", "name": "Rougier S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.678, "architecture_energy": 57.817, "architecture_maturity": 74.29, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.04, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 30.73, "deceleration": 29.14, "rotation_down": 39.53, "downward_expansion": 69.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.386667, 11.350909, 11.625238, 12.299785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.3, "trend_reference": 13.156667, "distance_from_trend": -0.14112, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.101205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.251715, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.178538, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.246667, "excess_performance": -0.299978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14112, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082093, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.251715, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009614, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.261785, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021534, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.246667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.252395, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 249, "relative_activity": 0.218584, "balance": 0.252395, "dry_up": 0.221656, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038802, "annualized_volatility": 0.379225, "from_high_reference": -0.346821, "from_low_reference": 0.118812 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.156667, "fair_value_reference": 15.101205, "structural_low": 10.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.006944, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.003067, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.117647, "worst_return": -0.202797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.064103, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.08144, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.143791, "worst_return": -0.219178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.060662, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.146626, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.103704, "worst_return": -0.136095, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054795, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019868, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046358, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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"volume": 182, "typical_volume": 1203.7, "trend": 13.38, "fair_value": 15.160179, "relative_strength": -23.30765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.01847, "energy": 41.277337, "activity_lines": [ 11.413333, 11.321818, 11.848571, 12.554624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.4, "volume": 354, "typical_volume": 1186.95, "trend": 13.27, "fair_value": 15.133897, "relative_strength": -24.471931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.801596, "energy": 41.070511, "activity_lines": [ 11.426667, 11.352727, 11.733333, 12.426882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.3, "volume": 249, "typical_volume": 1139.15, "trend": 13.156667, "fair_value": 15.101205, "relative_strength": -26.178538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.677933, "energy": 57.816611, "activity_lines": [ 11.386667, 11.350909, 11.625238, 12.299785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }