{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9ba9750-54c0-48a5-be9c-b8e287f0d171", "symbol": "ITRN", "name": "Ituran Location and Control Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.104, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -7.595, "architecture_energy": 22.321, "architecture_maturity": 41.712, "architecture_confidence": 88.417, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.21, "rotation_up": 14.46, "upward_expansion": 42.51, "deceleration": 82.67, "rotation_down": 48.4, "downward_expansion": 38.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.478667, 56.503185, 58.084059, 56.528126 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 52.95, "trend_reference": 53.640608, "distance_from_trend": -0.012875, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.533854, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.579001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.704166, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.188167, "excess_performance": 0.000713, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012875, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134711, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.579001, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.409905, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007042, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230412, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.188167, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.434161, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 746530, "relative_activity": 1.060396, "balance": 0.434161, "dry_up": 1.101228, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092513, "annualized_volatility": 0.287531, "from_high_reference": -0.218526, "from_low_reference": 0.713387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.640608, "fair_value_reference": 33.533854, "structural_low": 43.342713, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015201, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.009439, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.091298, "worst_return": -0.031048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.064473, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.019758, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264237, "worst_return": -0.047994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004369, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.104786, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.282142, "worst_return": -0.050445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"relative_strength": 11.097508, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.204342, "energy": 25.942563, "activity_lines": [ 57.361655, 59.693958, 58.850796, 56.243695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.77, "volume": 974017, "typical_volume": 678622.2, "trend": 52.815594, "fair_value": 33.147315, "relative_strength": 10.584277, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.944699, "energy": 20.136812, "activity_lines": [ 55.984, 58.666301, 58.673085, 56.398162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.16, "volume": 866583, "typical_volume": 698771.35, "trend": 53.279964, "fair_value": 33.347887, "relative_strength": 10.355435, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.633139, "energy": 20.154703, "activity_lines": [ 55.416, 57.745034, 58.500403, 56.549414 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.95, "volume": 746530, "typical_volume": 704010.65, "trend": 53.640608, "fair_value": 33.533854, "relative_strength": 0.704166, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.59453, "energy": 22.321286, "activity_lines": [ 54.478667, 56.503185, 58.084059, 56.528126 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }