{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9be39ed-f046-4ba2-a2b3-fe0b07a020e5", "symbol": "PAVE", "name": "Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.964, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.609, "architecture_energy": 34.787, "architecture_maturity": 54.682, "architecture_confidence": 80.548, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.79, "rotation_up": 37.52, "upward_expansion": 63.58, "deceleration": 88.2, "rotation_down": 26.32, "downward_expansion": 15.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.804666, 46.913909, 46.302809, 45.412247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 47.509998, "trend_reference": 44.269333, "distance_from_trend": 0.073203, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.475545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339232, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.653737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.104498, "excess_performance": -0.066393, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073203, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067597, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339232, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000231, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016537, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043798, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104498, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.9081, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34327, "relative_activity": 2.000192, "balance": 0.9081, "dry_up": 1.583396, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031864, "annualized_volatility": 0.166984, "from_high_reference": -0.03376, "from_low_reference": 0.306476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.269333, "fair_value_reference": 35.475545, "structural_low": 39.389999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005226, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.024752, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.104667, "worst_return": -0.095017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.08385, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.009686, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.231781, "worst_return": -0.199808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.151681, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.048983, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.279376, "worst_return": -0.039688, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028518, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.196512, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03572, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042216, "active": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.297964, "energy": 50.689122, "activity_lines": [ 46.81, 46.694, 45.693904, 44.800892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.549999, "volume": 32199, "typical_volume": 16201.35, "trend": 43.792833, "fair_value": 35.222724, "relative_strength": 2.025419, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.3634, "energy": 47.472476, "activity_lines": [ 46.948, 46.923636, 45.978428, 45.062484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.73, "volume": 17519, "typical_volume": 15716.65, "trend": 44.025833, "fair_value": 35.343526, "relative_strength": -2.524716, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.975701, "energy": 29.069517, "activity_lines": [ 46.491333, 46.770454, 46.067238, 45.187462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.509998, "volume": 34327, "typical_volume": 17161.85, "trend": 44.269333, "fair_value": 35.475545, "relative_strength": -1.653737, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.608922, "energy": 34.787084, "activity_lines": [ 46.804666, 46.913909, 46.302809, 45.412247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }