{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9c2bf22-391e-4c89-85e1-94749e9fdb89", "symbol": "FUSR", "name": "Fidelity US Equity Research Enhanced UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.609, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.285, "architecture_energy": 67.324, "architecture_maturity": 74.373, "architecture_confidence": 73.342, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.63, "rotation_up": 58.01, "upward_expansion": 84.84, "deceleration": 68.01, "rotation_down": 27.81, "downward_expansion": 11.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.949333, 11.880945, 11.709695, 11.44388 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.192, "trend_reference": 11.132333, "distance_from_trend": 0.095188, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.341122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305197, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.103455, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156736, "excess_performance": -0.014155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095188, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039621, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.305197, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026018, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031035, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010901, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156736, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.047896, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137964, "relative_activity": 0.712538, "balance": 8.047896, "dry_up": 0.694891, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01966, "annualized_volatility": 0.12395, "from_high_reference": -0.006519, "from_low_reference": 0.235884 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.132333, "fair_value_reference": 9.341122, "structural_low": 9.963, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.019328, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.004708, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.115925, "worst_return": -0.111026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.039064, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.013268, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.198993, "worst_return": -0.090291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.095364, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.057933, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.224297, "worst_return": -0.089208, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.164412, "energy": 66.85198, "activity_lines": [ 11.8472, 11.784836, 11.518505, 11.270903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.872, "volume": 188367, "typical_volume": 197655.7, "trend": 11.0458, "fair_value": 9.272006, "relative_strength": -2.387959, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.391591, "energy": 66.698887, "activity_lines": [ 11.865333, 11.808545, 11.581924, 11.326998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.752, "volume": 94317, "typical_volume": 191426.5, "trend": 11.086533, "fair_value": 9.305154, "relative_strength": -3.918897, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.494541, "energy": 59.823946, "activity_lines": [ 11.837733, 11.805273, 11.627952, 11.372559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.192, "volume": 137964, "typical_volume": 193623.45, "trend": 11.132333, "fair_value": 9.341122, "relative_strength": -3.103455, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.285135, "energy": 67.323969, "activity_lines": [ 11.949333, 11.880945, 11.709695, 11.44388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }