{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9cd712c-0cb1-47dc-8582-59b07aabae5e", "symbol": "IND", "name": "Index International Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.141, "architecture_energy": 29.685, "architecture_maturity": 80.469, "architecture_confidence": 77.347, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.71, "rotation_up": 25.55, "upward_expansion": 14.6, "deceleration": 46.86, "rotation_down": 36.09, "downward_expansion": 62.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.909333, 0.908909, 0.928217, 0.969647 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.88, "trend_reference": 1.042004, "distance_from_trend": -0.155473, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.855659, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028447, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.328584, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.328823, "excess_performance": -0.521148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155473, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064499, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028447, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210205, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.293286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18994, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.328823, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.999865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3781200, "relative_activity": 0.976416, "balance": 1.999865, "dry_up": 1.830496, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091783, "annualized_volatility": 0.403829, "from_high_reference": -0.409027, "from_low_reference": 0.08642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.042004, "fair_value_reference": 0.855659, "structural_low": 0.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.011764, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010895, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.152778, "worst_return": -0.214877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.057332, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.208334, "worst_return": -0.276422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.058823, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.090034, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.336665, "worst_return": -0.398648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081347, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08046, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085365, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.303371, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", 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"typical_volume": 3212555.0, "trend": 1.086059, "fair_value": 0.857687, "relative_strength": -24.383701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.105837, "energy": 41.173237, "activity_lines": [ 0.91, 0.900182, 0.955465, 1.009892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.98, "volume": 17084800, "typical_volume": 3781510.0, "trend": 1.08345, "fair_value": 0.857198, "relative_strength": -23.457428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.139468, "energy": 28.161343, "activity_lines": [ 0.938667, 0.912, 0.953451, 1.00305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.92, "volume": 4688200, "typical_volume": 3750840.0, "trend": 1.068852, "fair_value": 0.856489, "relative_strength": -28.126088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.682212, "energy": 22.912695, "activity_lines": [ 0.937333, 0.914727, 0.946452, 0.992504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.89, "volume": 2800400, "typical_volume": 3756490.0, "trend": 1.055438, "fair_value": 0.855696, "relative_strength": -29.460322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.015586, "energy": 23.008555, "activity_lines": [ 0.925333, 0.912364, 0.937343, 0.980966 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.88, "volume": 3781200, "typical_volume": 3872530.0, "trend": 1.042004, "fair_value": 0.855659, "relative_strength": -29.328584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.141135, "energy": 29.685178, "activity_lines": [ 0.909333, 0.908909, 0.928217, 0.969647 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }