{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9cef7cd-239d-4815-b769-f82c466205ba", "symbol": "VFS", "name": "VinFast Auto Ltd. Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.012, "architecture_energy": 31.003, "architecture_maturity": 26.854, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.88, "rotation_up": 25.01, "upward_expansion": 15.85, "deceleration": 40.51, "rotation_down": 38.85, "downward_expansion": 65.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.139333, 3.104364, 3.323143, 3.404215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.35, "trend_reference": 3.448333, "distance_from_trend": -0.028516, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.032083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.334272, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.000742, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006006, "excess_performance": -0.181448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028516, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024885, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.334272, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095875, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140007, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172195, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006006, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.36215, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1718105, "relative_activity": 0.518466, "balance": 0.36215, "dry_up": 0.626616, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091173, "annualized_volatility": 0.606571, "from_high_reference": -0.366131, "from_low_reference": 0.205036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.448333, "fair_value_reference": 5.032083, "structural_low": 2.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.006905, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025242, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.936508, "worst_return": -0.491935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029155, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.168211, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.152778, "worst_return": -0.263804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.106638, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.310709, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.25656, "worst_return": -0.376276, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.15, "volume": 2382378, "typical_volume": 3303005.9, "trend": 3.478, "fair_value": 5.206763, "relative_strength": -17.434161, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.365, "energy": 55.989982, "activity_lines": [ 3.084, 3.145273, 3.447095, 3.473828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.85, "volume": 2319816, "typical_volume": 3357901.55, "trend": 3.46, "fair_value": 5.153558, "relative_strength": -23.515835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.089985, "energy": 69.409857, "activity_lines": [ 3.011333, 3.070909, 3.38081, 3.433312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.11, "volume": 1885677, "typical_volume": 3382082.65, "trend": 3.451, "fair_value": 5.105609, "relative_strength": -16.516123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.803729, "energy": 52.275661, "activity_lines": [ 3.038, 3.061636, 3.340571, 3.410731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.35, "volume": 1718105, "typical_volume": 3313821.1, "trend": 3.448333, "fair_value": 5.032083, "relative_strength": -14.000742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.011592, "energy": 31.002781, "activity_lines": [ 3.139333, 3.104364, 3.323143, 3.404215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }