{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9cf0d6d-75a3-4953-9a89-5bbcfeb4835c", "symbol": "002805", "name": "Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.101, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.301, "architecture_energy": 37.153, "architecture_maturity": 61.87, "architecture_confidence": 53.901, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.02, "rotation_up": 16.72, "upward_expansion": 19.74, "deceleration": 62.83, "rotation_down": 65.6, "downward_expansion": 42.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.906, 20.238545, 21.181333, 20.570322 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 18.65, "trend_reference": 19.593, "distance_from_trend": -0.048129, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.717179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.571351, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.167084, "excess_performance": 0.159684, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048129, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061318, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.415078, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015714, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.278132, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167084, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.486501, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76819249, "relative_activity": 0.83674, "balance": 0.486501, "dry_up": 0.998415, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177026, "annualized_volatility": 0.731402, "from_high_reference": -0.364782, "from_low_reference": 0.522449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.593, "fair_value_reference": 14.717179, "structural_low": 14.67, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.009497, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.038197, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.2805, "worst_return": -0.366842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.087291, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.140233, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.227688, "worst_return": -0.24781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032471, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.082183, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302759, "worst_return": -0.244602, "sufficient": false 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"gate": "up", "direction": 59.619147, "energy": 57.395523, "activity_lines": [ 24.778, 24.022, 22.449762, 21.102516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.08, "volume": 90932933, "typical_volume": 98473781.95, "trend": 19.620667, "fair_value": 14.79782, "relative_strength": 3.085689, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.219197, "energy": 15.815433, "activity_lines": [ 22.577333, 22.990727, 22.184905, 21.005935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.530001, "volume": 102995509, "typical_volume": 96357130.7, "trend": 19.629, "fair_value": 14.762564, "relative_strength": -6.208889, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.76803, "energy": 16.24924, "activity_lines": [ 20.070667, 21.797091, 21.766095, 20.806538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.879999, "volume": 95901519, "typical_volume": 92783934.3, "trend": 19.562333, "fair_value": 14.729551, "relative_strength": -2.930247, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.556422, "energy": 38.091863, "activity_lines": [ 18.370667, 20.798, 21.386762, 20.629183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.65, "volume": 76819249, "typical_volume": 91807790.2, "trend": 19.593, "fair_value": 14.717179, "relative_strength": 1.571351, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.301248, "energy": 37.152615, "activity_lines": [ 17.906, 20.238545, 21.181333, 20.570322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }