{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9cf3183-3901-4fac-9a8f-71678196b521", "symbol": "603929", "name": "L&K Engineering (Suzhou) Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.54, "architecture_energy": 29.011, "architecture_maturity": 29.519, "architecture_confidence": 50.122, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.96, "rotation_up": 16.91, "upward_expansion": 17.84, "deceleration": 69.36, "rotation_down": 64.26, "downward_expansion": 42.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 164.802667, 186.755456, 189.929706, 185.307351 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 164.800003, "trend_reference": 175.701762, "distance_from_trend": -0.062047, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.893194, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.896656, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 35.124929, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.050214, "excess_performance": 0.093418, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062047, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.315597, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.896656, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.827086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.351249, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.893889, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050214, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.263608, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39842617, "relative_activity": 1.445842, "balance": 0.263608, "dry_up": 1.44737, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.237259, "annualized_volatility": 0.890814, "from_high_reference": -0.390442, "from_low_reference": 3.948947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 175.701762, "fair_value_reference": 56.893194, "structural_low": 125.40548, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.082729, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.043585, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.751973, "worst_return": -0.001554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.230297, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.246667, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.623151, "worst_return": -0.008116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.171704, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.229514, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.113338, "worst_return": -0.056169, 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"activity_lines": [ 231.710669, 210.729693, 197.455271, 183.858056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 214.580002, "volume": 38941711, "typical_volume": 24716830.1, "trend": 166.413999, "fair_value": 53.108865, "relative_strength": 88.673729, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.718357, "energy": 70.298461, "activity_lines": [ 229.875336, 213.333476, 200.326998, 187.275124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 171.300003, "volume": 42316804, "typical_volume": 25659646.95, "trend": 169.176723, "fair_value": 54.110291, "relative_strength": 56.122753, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.6146, "energy": 33.243735, "activity_lines": [ 210.647336, 207.560729, 198.747916, 187.59035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 165.5, "volume": 36256549, "typical_volume": 26464226.15, "trend": 171.735538, "fair_value": 55.075803, "relative_strength": 45.70048, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.428618, "energy": 12.421378, "activity_lines": [ 192.604668, 201.241274, 196.481559, 187.353142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 148.589996, "volume": 41122872, "typical_volume": 27756440.2, "trend": 173.364219, "fair_value": 55.932112, "relative_strength": 27.793648, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.844475, "energy": 28.346088, "activity_lines": [ 172.259999, 192.275455, 192.455105, 185.859881 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 164.800003, "volume": 39842617, "typical_volume": 27556684.2, "trend": 175.701762, "fair_value": 56.893194, "relative_strength": 35.124929, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.539814, "energy": 29.010637, "activity_lines": [ 164.802667, 186.755456, 189.929706, 185.307351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }