{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9d194de-f35c-4fcc-a706-937a7c4009c2", "symbol": "ARAMI", "name": "Aramis Group SAS", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.928, "architecture_energy": 49.808, "architecture_maturity": 20.216, "architecture_confidence": 75.476, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.07, "rotation_up": 75.16, "upward_expansion": 46.49, "deceleration": 36.48, "rotation_down": 14.01, "downward_expansion": 19.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.913667, 3.582636, 3.451667, 3.543226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.22, "trend_reference": 3.7375, "distance_from_trend": 0.129097, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.167115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183297, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.939695, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.017462, "excess_performance": -0.070774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.129097, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138726, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183297, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082453, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119397, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165888, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017462, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.231339, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 326517, "relative_activity": 1.096566, "balance": 1.231339, "dry_up": 1.126977, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083394, "annualized_volatility": 0.537663, "from_high_reference": -0.366366, "from_low_reference": 0.517986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.7375, "fair_value_reference": 5.167115, "structural_low": 2.78, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024661, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.042281, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.219178, "worst_return": -0.308057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.038813, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028744, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.276394, "worst_return": -0.35703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.114155, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.064281, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.601423, "worst_return": -0.538705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.330865, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.298902, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.838671, "worst_return": -0.176941, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.34188, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.153488, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04745, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002398, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039261, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.486275, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03598, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.094017, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02589, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.308057, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.144105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.015, "volume": 111807, "typical_volume": 321104.55, "trend": 4.3397, "fair_value": 8.575693, "relative_strength": -12.469552, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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316029, "typical_volume": 304645.6, "trend": 3.785833, "fair_value": 5.169359, "relative_strength": -18.38634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.714611, "energy": 19.20601, "activity_lines": [ 3.472667, 3.267364, 3.339833, 3.504774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.92, "volume": 375373, "typical_volume": 314101.55, "trend": 3.758167, "fair_value": 5.167051, "relative_strength": -16.824094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.020212, "energy": 30.361642, "activity_lines": [ 3.678, 3.406364, 3.381524, 3.51343 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.22, "volume": 326517, "typical_volume": 297763.2, "trend": 3.7375, "fair_value": 5.167115, "relative_strength": -11.939695, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.927733, "energy": 49.808056, "activity_lines": [ 3.913667, 3.582636, 3.451667, 3.543226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }