{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9d4f84a-a06f-43e6-9b38-7e43c95acb6f", "symbol": "BHFAP", "name": "Brighthouse Financial, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.1, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.083, "architecture_energy": 84.939, "architecture_maturity": 16.838, "architecture_confidence": 81.478, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.52, "rotation_up": 9.23, "upward_expansion": 19.91, "deceleration": 37.18, "rotation_down": 82.58, "downward_expansion": 97.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.039667, 14.321302, 14.680093, 14.898827 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 13.885, "trend_reference": 15.182676, "distance_from_trend": -0.085471, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.462733, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.204878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.06356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120321, "excess_performance": -0.307775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085471, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006369, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.204878, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200636, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018236, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120321, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.816732, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144861, "relative_activity": 0.959484, "balance": 0.816732, "dry_up": 1.11867, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032645, "annualized_volatility": 0.186808, "from_high_reference": -0.176585, "from_low_reference": 0.032787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.182676, "fair_value_reference": 17.462733, "structural_low": 13.4442, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.004957, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.006453, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.119079, "worst_return": -0.119887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.007434, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.010214, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.249496, "worst_return": -0.146022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045854, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.064187, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.11616, "worst_return": -0.254502, "sufficient": true }, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 14.77, "volume": 114275, "typical_volume": 143094.15, "trend": 15.248865, "fair_value": 17.548611, "relative_strength": -16.991878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.416786, "energy": 55.224057, "activity_lines": [ 14.786, 14.853627, 15.076839, 15.204151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.57, "volume": 123578, "typical_volume": 138288.55, "trend": 15.25142, "fair_value": 17.531246, "relative_strength": -14.146484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.717147, "energy": 67.063164, "activity_lines": [ 14.699333, 14.781563, 15.015191, 15.160353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.82, "volume": 198769, "typical_volume": 143054.95, "trend": 15.240048, "fair_value": 17.507326, "relative_strength": -16.873131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.97888, "energy": 79.770597, "activity_lines": [ 14.384667, 14.589898, 14.888619, 15.068004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.95, "volume": 208370, "typical_volume": 148898.0, "trend": 15.217191, "fair_value": 17.485936, "relative_strength": -16.101486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.215513, "energy": 81.724829, "activity_lines": [ 14.202, 14.451915, 14.783826, 14.984775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.885, "volume": 144861, "typical_volume": 150977.95, "trend": 15.182676, "fair_value": 17.462733, "relative_strength": -20.06356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.082509, "energy": 84.938558, "activity_lines": [ 14.039667, 14.321302, 14.680093, 14.898827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }