{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9d77784-3160-4dc6-b9b9-38d203e36870", "symbol": "1313", "name": "UPC Technology Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.88, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.332, "architecture_energy": 14.829, "architecture_maturity": 25.475, "architecture_confidence": 36.056, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 71.6, "rotation_up": 15.84, "upward_expansion": 13.67, "deceleration": 72.14, "rotation_down": 46.2, "downward_expansion": 34.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.46, 11.846419, 11.66851, 11.676254 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.75, "trend_reference": 11.559239, "distance_from_trend": 0.016503, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.404282, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030315, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.377187, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.167702, "excess_performance": -0.27367, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016503, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053085, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030315, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134521, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.233772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0701, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167702, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.147715, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13562072, "relative_activity": 0.452104, "balance": 3.147715, "dry_up": 0.720488, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107134, "annualized_volatility": 0.534619, "from_high_reference": -0.201874, "from_low_reference": 0.278552 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.559239, "fair_value_reference": 11.404282, "structural_low": 10.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.025375, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007738, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.210762, "worst_return": -0.069328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057704, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037704, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195321, "worst_return": -0.115181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041379, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.171538, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.282675, "worst_return": -0.178621, "sufficient": true 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11.494677, "relative_strength": -20.50791, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.361641, "energy": 52.92783, "activity_lines": [ 12.466667, 12.197179, 11.819284, 11.726412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.35, "volume": 28172117, "typical_volume": 35162813.85, "trend": 11.441193, "fair_value": 11.46186, "relative_strength": -29.588893, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.995684, "energy": 9.024081, "activity_lines": [ 11.696667, 11.928597, 11.679308, 11.656311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.5, "volume": 20019877, "typical_volume": 32697125.15, "trend": 11.499684, "fair_value": 11.433037, "relative_strength": -22.939993, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.298441, "energy": 13.457739, "activity_lines": [ 11.443333, 11.872892, 11.658818, 11.660105 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.75, "volume": 13562072, "typical_volume": 29997674.9, "trend": 11.559239, "fair_value": 11.404282, "relative_strength": -23.377187, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.332269, "energy": 14.829142, "activity_lines": [ 11.46, 11.846419, 11.66851, 11.676254 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }