{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9f0a047-29da-43e3-9e21-007636c1a5fc", "symbol": "603053", "name": "Chengdu Gas Group Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.308, "architecture_energy": 25.786, "architecture_maturity": 90.417, "architecture_confidence": 78.865, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.66, "rotation_up": 27.54, "upward_expansion": 16.9, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 23.02, "downward_expansion": 59.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.791333, 8.666963, 8.915622, 9.182985 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.86, "trend_reference": 9.503559, "distance_from_trend": -0.067718, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.456402, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063069, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.909038, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.139806, "excess_performance": -0.096602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067718, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050056, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063069, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090054, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01267, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139806, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.449347, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10297919, "relative_activity": 0.766335, "balance": 0.449347, "dry_up": 0.876121, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049617, "annualized_volatility": 0.196325, "from_high_reference": -0.252951, "from_low_reference": 0.104794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.503559, "fair_value_reference": 9.456402, "structural_low": 8.019594, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.059344, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.016834, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.133918, "worst_return": -0.143089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010958, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.002786, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.251565, "worst_return": -0.078431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.100361, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.075007, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172716, "worst_return": 0.018471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 9.633892, "fair_value": 9.469006, "relative_strength": -15.787869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.478172, "energy": 86.548083, "activity_lines": [ 8.427081, 8.699818, 9.138179, 9.388033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.7, "volume": 11923779, "typical_volume": 21258223.05, "trend": 9.598225, "fair_value": 9.465951, "relative_strength": -8.223652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.775584, "energy": 65.963976, "activity_lines": [ 8.511707, 8.647513, 9.063909, 9.327781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.65, "volume": 14428211, "typical_volume": 16797571.95, "trend": 9.557892, "fair_value": 9.462343, "relative_strength": -9.658588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.654877, "energy": 49.94073, "activity_lines": [ 8.581329, 8.604845, 8.991638, 9.266606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.93, "volume": 10442971, "typical_volume": 14848081.05, "trend": 9.528225, "fair_value": 9.459807, "relative_strength": -6.936592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.796375, "energy": 35.177315, "activity_lines": [ 8.728022, 8.635268, 8.953939, 9.226096 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.86, "volume": 10297919, "typical_volume": 13437888.7, "trend": 9.503559, "fair_value": 9.456402, "relative_strength": -9.909038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.307572, "energy": 25.785793, "activity_lines": [ 8.791333, 8.666963, 8.915622, 9.182985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }