{ "ticker": { "uuid": "e9fd9e57-15b3-4d2b-9a7f-4a71aae2940c", "symbol": "COBR", "name": "Cobra Resources plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.364, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.601, "architecture_energy": 53.917, "architecture_maturity": 20.305, "architecture_confidence": 93.131, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.58, "rotation_up": 15.08, "upward_expansion": 10.54, "deceleration": 40.6, "rotation_down": 66.0, "downward_expansion": 88.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0401, 0.040882, 0.042612, 0.043625 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.04, "trend_reference": 0.044633, "distance_from_trend": -0.103809, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.02231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.792923, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.913184, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.111111, "excess_performance": -0.162346, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103809, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007413, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.792923, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.559713, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336816, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.574015, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8779193, "relative_activity": 1.01017, "balance": 0.574015, "dry_up": 1.224421, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103096, "annualized_volatility": 0.394076, "from_high_reference": -0.354839, "from_low_reference": 0.428571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.044633, "fair_value_reference": 0.02231, "structural_low": 0.037, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.016129, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019483, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.526316, "worst_return": -0.319149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019652, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.806452, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.113158, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.113517, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.0, "worst_return": -0.261905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.159091, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.297297, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.533333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", 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0.039, "volume": 15729347, "typical_volume": 8892588.2, "trend": 0.0452, "fair_value": 0.021768, "relative_strength": -13.642966, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.621177, "energy": 55.599936, "activity_lines": [ 0.041167, 0.042245, 0.043829, 0.044559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0405, "volume": 8589701, "typical_volume": 9037395.9, "trend": 0.045, "fair_value": 0.021951, "relative_strength": -11.866083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.519152, "energy": 54.41715, "activity_lines": [ 0.040733, 0.041727, 0.043405, 0.044256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 9466577, "typical_volume": 8723179.35, "trend": 0.044783, "fair_value": 0.02213, "relative_strength": -14.429316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.160453, "energy": 53.619544, "activity_lines": [ 0.0403, 0.041255, 0.042979, 0.043933 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.04, "volume": 8779193, "typical_volume": 8690807.4, "trend": 0.044633, "fair_value": 0.02231, "relative_strength": -14.913184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.600891, "energy": 53.917023, "activity_lines": [ 0.0401, 0.040882, 0.042612, 0.043625 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }