{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea026feb-c2b1-426e-a8bc-4e86e6a5aaae", "symbol": "688092", "name": "Hangzhou IECHO Science&Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.865, "architecture_energy": 59.114, "architecture_maturity": 42.269, "architecture_confidence": 94.341, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.07, "rotation_up": 21.25, "upward_expansion": 10.52, "deceleration": 58.62, "rotation_down": 57.51, "downward_expansion": 81.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.202667, 21.620364, 23.785132, 25.2713 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.219999, "trend_reference": 26.912844, "distance_from_trend": -0.174372, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.545173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014423, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.214235, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.241993, "excess_performance": -0.198789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174372, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032936, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014423, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.355761, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142142, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.241993, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.417992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3643466, "relative_activity": 0.844678, "balance": 0.417992, "dry_up": 0.984623, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094963, "annualized_volatility": 0.407411, "from_high_reference": -0.306629, "from_low_reference": 0.157292 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.912844, "fair_value_reference": 22.545173, "structural_low": 19.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.087114, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.022978, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.233551, "worst_return": -0.093991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.180337, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.089718, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.398416, "worst_return": 0.091147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.219144, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.055873, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.277954, "worst_return": 0.030474, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "down", "direction": -71.877519, "energy": 88.479278, "activity_lines": [ 22.317333, 23.866991, 25.931552, 26.879501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.950001, "volume": 4411955, "typical_volume": 4650466.75, "trend": 27.265618, "fair_value": 22.517412, "relative_strength": -16.195678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.960518, "energy": 87.810516, "activity_lines": [ 21.837334, 23.063149, 25.317167, 26.465873 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.540001, "volume": 5325236, "typical_volume": 4488971.15, "trend": 27.115378, "fair_value": 22.515435, "relative_strength": -22.557964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.033476, "energy": 74.044404, "activity_lines": [ 21.016001, 22.162238, 24.619253, 25.967446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.110001, "volume": 3607790, "typical_volume": 4391746.85, "trend": 27.004886, "fair_value": 22.523304, "relative_strength": -16.462645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.461769, "energy": 64.624357, "activity_lines": [ 20.921334, 21.71491, 24.126964, 25.580002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.219999, "volume": 3643466, "typical_volume": 4313438.95, "trend": 26.912844, "fair_value": 22.545173, "relative_strength": -14.214235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.864849, "energy": 59.114291, "activity_lines": [ 21.202667, 21.620364, 23.785132, 25.2713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }