{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea0cc4e8-2e6b-490f-8d0b-02eecb7975fb", "symbol": "TBL", "name": "Taiga Building Products Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.665, "architecture_energy": 12.881, "architecture_maturity": 7.492, "architecture_confidence": 71.837, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.16, "rotation_up": 19.22, "upward_expansion": 40.12, "deceleration": 77.21, "rotation_down": 36.61, "downward_expansion": 34.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.640667, 3.664364, 3.672952, 3.664323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.65, "trend_reference": 3.638667, "distance_from_trend": 0.003115, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.770462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31747, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.189938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022409, "excess_performance": -0.098012, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003115, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31747, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039422, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091899, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022409, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.616842, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10500, "relative_activity": 0.570962, "balance": 0.616842, "dry_up": 1.769984, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029715, "annualized_volatility": 0.219304, "from_high_reference": -0.111922, "from_low_reference": 0.137072 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.638667, "fair_value_reference": 2.770462, "structural_low": 3.3, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.009282, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.01041, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.27013, "worst_return": -0.171642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035341, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.354163, "worst_return": -0.027027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.137373, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.062108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.273437, "worst_return": 0.042471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.158731, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047256, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.338168, "worst_return": -0.027027, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071258, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.231293, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015464, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018229, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018182, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002825, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059701, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050279, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00274, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00551, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.717495, "volume": 28600, "typical_volume": 47500.0, "trend": 1.709112, "fair_value": 1.537072, "relative_strength": 2.585878, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.64, "volume": 10400, "typical_volume": 16565.0, "trend": 3.624, "fair_value": 2.73383, "relative_strength": -7.286363, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.548127, "energy": 12.658437, "activity_lines": [ 3.673333, 3.694, 3.684143, 3.662946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.63, "volume": 22600, "typical_volume": 14855.0, "trend": 3.63, "fair_value": 2.745893, "relative_strength": -7.567431, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.231577, "energy": 13.591152, "activity_lines": [ 3.655333, 3.682545, 3.679952, 3.663333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.63, "volume": 86700, "typical_volume": 18615.0, "trend": 3.634667, "fair_value": 2.757996, "relative_strength": -6.968233, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.832114, "energy": 12.241436, "activity_lines": [ 3.642, 3.671455, 3.675333, 3.663333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.65, "volume": 10500, "typical_volume": 18390.0, "trend": 3.638667, "fair_value": 2.770462, "relative_strength": -9.189938, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.665039, "energy": 12.880544, "activity_lines": [ 3.640667, 3.664364, 3.672952, 3.664323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }