{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea16cc1a-ab8c-4c4b-9ff3-300b68acead2", "symbol": "IRIX", "name": "IRIDEX Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.111, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.451, "architecture_energy": 90.429, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.869, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.31, "rotation_up": 8.06, "upward_expansion": 21.55, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 80.46, "downward_expansion": 94.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.87158, 0.960767, 1.005474, 1.053825 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.8305, "trend_reference": 1.14453, "distance_from_trend": -0.274375, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.676954, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.504757, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.290846, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.431164, "excess_performance": -0.618618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.274375, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00465, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.504757, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.362908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110322, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.431164, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.242442, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 243683, "relative_activity": 0.271858, "balance": 1.242442, "dry_up": 0.305436, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103404, "annualized_volatility": 0.549719, "from_high_reference": -0.496667, "from_low_reference": 0.032832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.14453, "fair_value_reference": 1.676954, "structural_low": 0.8041, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.035961, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.571429, "worst_return": -0.342193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.089796, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.133775, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.490099, "worst_return": -0.409091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.140902, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.214984, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.40099, "worst_return": -0.52931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127204, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107914, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.230846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", 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"relative_strength": -16.219404, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.615642, "energy": 19.363681, "activity_lines": [ 1.126, 1.096364, 1.087625, 1.136353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.1, "volume": 160273, "typical_volume": 875090.6, "trend": 1.18034, "fair_value": 1.702938, "relative_strength": -19.63936, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.314629, "energy": 17.205359, "activity_lines": [ 1.119333, 1.101273, 1.085243, 1.131555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.9344, "volume": 397455, "typical_volume": 885281.9, "trend": 1.178153, "fair_value": 1.695722, "relative_strength": -28.108038, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.073457, "energy": 40.008661, "activity_lines": [ 1.0568, 1.0748, 1.068471, 1.115688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.8908, "volume": 173879, "typical_volume": 885776.65, "trend": 1.166847, "fair_value": 1.688484, "relative_strength": -29.482452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.177732, "energy": 73.563654, "activity_lines": [ 0.992107, 1.042138, 1.049763, 1.097149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.82, "volume": 280107, "typical_volume": 894406.7, "trend": 1.15518, "fair_value": 1.680599, "relative_strength": -34.674602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.567671, "energy": 88.727147, "activity_lines": [ 0.91976, 0.998771, 1.025976, 1.074772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8305, "volume": 243683, "typical_volume": 896361.65, "trend": 1.14453, "fair_value": 1.676954, "relative_strength": -36.290846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.450866, "energy": 90.429093, "activity_lines": [ 0.87158, 0.960767, 1.005474, 1.053825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }