{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea19f43c-83b0-473e-9828-720fe2a83bff", "symbol": "WORLD", "name": "Franklin FTSE Developed World U", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.29, "architecture_energy": 50.208, "architecture_maturity": 85.54, "architecture_confidence": 53.052, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.2, "rotation_up": 46.13, "upward_expansion": 74.15, "deceleration": 71.3, "rotation_down": 28.83, "downward_expansion": 12.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.699667, 31.659909, 31.231453, 30.564538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.369999, "trend_reference": 29.7735, "distance_from_trend": 0.087208, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.556442, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218913, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.958502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.14321, "excess_performance": -0.027681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087208, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045871, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218913, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053186, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010964, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14321, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.007833, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4354, "relative_activity": 2.488996, "balance": 3.007833, "dry_up": 0.925799, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025011, "annualized_volatility": 0.114842, "from_high_reference": -0.033731, "from_low_reference": 0.276923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.7735, "fair_value_reference": 26.556442, "structural_low": 27.094999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013477, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.009046, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.087093, "worst_return": -0.05636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.024532, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018932, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.054095, "worst_return": -0.005032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.147529, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016552, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.147529, "worst_return": 0.147529, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "up", "direction": 65.111326, "energy": 59.757651, "activity_lines": [ 31.674, 31.548182, 30.79181, 30.153194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.530001, "volume": 778, "typical_volume": 1552.95, "trend": 29.5395, "fair_value": 26.461606, "relative_strength": -2.153015, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.278692, "energy": 53.734884, "activity_lines": [ 31.622667, 31.572909, 30.9415, 30.289538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.08, "volume": 204, "typical_volume": 1558.3, "trend": 29.648, "fair_value": 26.503591, "relative_strength": -4.119552, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.542424, "energy": 38.853951, "activity_lines": [ 31.432667, 31.499182, 31.032119, 30.388925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.369999, "volume": 4354, "typical_volume": 1749.3, "trend": 29.7735, "fair_value": 26.556442, "relative_strength": -2.958502, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.29029, "energy": 50.207544, "activity_lines": [ 31.699667, 31.659909, 31.231453, 30.564538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }