{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ea1d3b49-7110-4f85-800e-478a62025898", "symbol": "ALBE", "name": "Albemarle Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.989, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.401, "architecture_energy": 85.345, "architecture_maturity": 22.227, "architecture_confidence": 90.096, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.09, "rotation_up": 10.92, "upward_expansion": 21.48, "deceleration": 37.23, "rotation_down": 76.83, "downward_expansion": 97.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 106.466668, 112.501144, 127.57241, 134.021218 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 111.75, "trend_reference": 140.185404, "distance_from_trend": -0.202841, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 102.234542, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.648848, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.184738, "excess_performance": -0.358984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.202841, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01813, "read": "Rising" 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98.879997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.009844, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029531, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.267978, "worst_return": -0.310677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00411, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.077786, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.435177, "worst_return": -0.350067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.162951, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.186251, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.643924, "worst_return": -0.366769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.32811, "energy": 65.68524, "activity_lines": [ 128.554191, 137.541194, 145.305831, 145.555971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 110.650002, "volume": 1784, "typical_volume": 579.95, "trend": 143.06617, "fair_value": 104.038369, "relative_strength": -20.791608, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.31761, "energy": 75.187839, "activity_lines": [ 121.183335, 131.247431, 141.787965, 143.464097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 104.099998, "volume": 626, "typical_volume": 472.25, "trend": 142.348013, "fair_value": 103.520668, "relative_strength": -24.194567, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.872032, "energy": 92.540237, "activity_lines": [ 113.426667, 124.766814, 137.800412, 140.95015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 104.400002, "volume": 968, "typical_volume": 433.55, "trend": 141.692373, "fair_value": 103.044595, "relative_strength": -25.105826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.548018, "energy": 90.700033, "activity_lines": [ 108.733334, 119.481108, 134.072043, 138.501892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.550003, "volume": 117, "typical_volume": 406.2, "trend": 141.058071, "fair_value": 102.563813, "relative_strength": -27.363436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.015811, "energy": 90.646064, "activity_lines": [ 105.346668, 114.649919, 130.247298, 135.912061 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.75, "volume": 1073, "typical_volume": 455.75, "trend": 140.185404, "fair_value": 102.234542, "relative_strength": -22.648848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.40082, "energy": 85.345197, "activity_lines": [ 106.466668, 112.501144, 127.57241, 134.021218 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }